Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa66726c9a4cbdb762aaa72a9a37768008ef1fe24946fcb5a68c81c173d03c504
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 12c | 2,213$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.78 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 1,167$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.55 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…bd99backed Over | 57c | 854.56$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 838.07$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.64 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 38c | 761.55$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.93 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 52c | 631.28$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.01 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 55c | 491.24$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.8 | 212 | 54.7%116 W · 96 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed Over | 15c | 424.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.19 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.37per pick | 54cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 24c | 400.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 383.94$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.84 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Over | 19c | 335.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.37 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.35per pick | 44cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 40c | 241$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 168 | 26.2%44 W · 124 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 20c | 238$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…f74cbacked Over | 41c | 164.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed Over | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3a…9806backed Under | 58c | 115.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Over | 78c | 114.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…2dcabacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Over | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 15c | 82.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 76c | 80.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 69c | 74.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 135 | 73.3%99 W · 36 L | +24.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 23c | 73.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 57c | 68.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 373 | 41.6%155 W · 218 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…63afbacked Under | 29c | 66.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 24c | 60.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 74c | 56.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 23c | 53.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…57c7backed Under | 24c | 47.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 63c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 192 | 65.1%125 W · 67 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 77c | 42.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed Under | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 44c | 38.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 53c | 34.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 72c | 34.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 77c | 20.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 80c | 15.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b5…f7ebbacked Over | 73c | 15.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 80c | 14.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)FC Nordsjælland won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.