Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a17138e238426031b633b1789803413a3173127d83e1e6421705229683f68d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aarhus GFof FC Nordsjælland, Aarhus GF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3897…5765backed FC Nordsjælland | 6c | 1,011$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…45f8backed FC Nordsjælland | 6c | 967.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…9bbdbacked FC Nordsjælland | 6c | 964$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…c3e6backed FC Nordsjælland | 6c | 959$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…c65ebacked FC Nordsjælland | 6c | 919$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…22c0backed FC Nordsjælland | 6c | 868$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Nordsjælland | 4c | 729.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2,696 | 35.6%961 W · 1,735 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed FC Nordsjælland | 7c | 462.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8b…e92cbacked FC Nordsjælland | 6c | 328.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed Aarhus GF | 54c | 302.32$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.37per pick | 54cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8820…f3c6backed FC Nordsjælland | 10c | 265.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…39e8backed FC Nordsjælland | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…36b2backed FC Nordsjælland | 50c | 147.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Aarhus GF | 51c | 141.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.35per pick | 44cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Aarhus GF | 80c | 139.41$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaa…2e54backed FC Nordsjælland | 47c | 131.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…2dcabacked Aarhus GF | 63c | 83.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…61cebacked FC Nordsjælland | 43c | 49.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…7e00backed FC Nordsjælland | 51c | 48.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked FC Nordsjælland | 46c | 43.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f12…0af0backed FC Nordsjælland | 44c | 34.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Aarhus GF | 54c | 33.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Aarhus GF | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8435…d58bbacked FC Nordsjælland | 47c | 28.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)this page
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)FC Nordsjælland won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.