Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4f05c596db69b4085dcf9ecf874d3f91ff8390991be191ee911ea453da76e53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x414c…f10bbacked Under | 79c | 1,200$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 800.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 16c | 755.76$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 14c | 666.45$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 20c | 299.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 245.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 79c | 233.73$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 79c | 224.52$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 21c | 223.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 112 | 29.5%33 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Over | 22c | 79.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…fab1backed Under | 72c | 76.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 79c | 69.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Over | 22c | 66.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 21c | 55.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)FC Nordsjælland won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.