Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee6d900f51b9072f6beccc423c1c3b29d6612a5dcf120cd607899029b33c7584
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Nordsjællandof Aarhus GF, FC Nordsjælland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Aarhus GF | 9c | 877.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 112 | 29.5%33 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…b81ebacked Aarhus GF | 70c | 874.94$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed FC Nordsjælland | 54c | 855.15$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.18 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.37per pick | 54cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…2dcabacked FC Nordsjælland | 32c | 695.54$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed FC Nordsjælland | 33c | 519.52$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.22 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.35per pick | 44cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aarhus GF | 8c | 416.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…a6d5backed Aarhus GF | 68c | 157.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked Aarhus GF | 36c | 126.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked FC Nordsjælland | 43c | 95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…de4bbacked FC Nordsjælland | 24c | 94.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…e8cfbacked Aarhus GF | 51c | 71.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…1caebacked Aarhus GF | 70c | 54.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked FC Nordsjælland | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e89…7880backed Aarhus GF | 68c | 38.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…5ec5backed Aarhus GF | 78c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818e…1669backed Aarhus GF | 68c | 37.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…ccebbacked Aarhus GF | 68c | 36.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8283…828abacked Aarhus GF | 68c | 36.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…79e0backed Aarhus GF | 68c | 33.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…7e00backed Aarhus GF | 49c | 28.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf46backed Aarhus GF | 78c | 26.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked FC Nordsjælland | 70c | 23.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…ebe9backed Aarhus GF | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…d481backed Aarhus GF | 70c | 16.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)this page
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.