World Politics · resolved market
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 165 and 179 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f2d7687de64959f80c6916452919a3a755f42198295e542a02265972590afca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,453 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,880$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…b391backed Yes | 13c | 1,227$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…5976backed Yes | 22c | 1,193$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4866…3f3bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,036$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 24c | 693.89$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.18 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 75c | 687.28$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 681.68$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.93 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…cae2backed Yes | 45c | 664.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 18c | 577.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…bd99backed Yes | 18c | 553.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 55c | 530.17$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.35 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 70c | 499.03$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.14 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f7…1a9abacked Yes | 18c | 440.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa377…4eb3backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd32…c9c1backed Yes | 26c | 390$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 4c | 386.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f0…6910backed Yes | 26c | 380.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12b…dc52backed Yes | 30c | 328.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ced…c076backed Yes | 20c | 322.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 25c | 285.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…0118backed Yes | 22c | 203.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 186.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 180.94$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe740…ba0fbacked Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…a15cbacked Yes | 13c | 156.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 20c | 151.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…8e32backed Yes | 21c | 150.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa367…cfcebacked Yes | 21c | 145$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6522…7d56backed Yes | 22c | 134.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…d713backed Yes | 9c | 114.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…1d41backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 93.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 92.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 82.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d0…9246backed Yes | 24c | 82.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ca…1076backed Yes | 37c | 76.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…65b9backed Yes | 28c | 75.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…653bbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b5…e077backed Yes | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…f81abacked Yes | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…8e79backed Yes | 20c | 61.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +156%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…26b1backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…3f30backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 19c | 57.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 80c | 57.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70e1…ca79backed Yes | 40c | 49.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 34.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f11…53dcbacked Yes | 39c | 33.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…d7e3backed No | 71c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +341.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 72c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…744fbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 165 and 179 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?this page
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win 180 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?No won
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 120 and 134 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Yes won
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 135 and 149 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?No won
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 150 and 164 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?No won
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.