World Politics · resolved market
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 150 and 164 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x726b193bb210d2ff424e04e002b82ef11f9a94db23005da99c4856400cb70320
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,832 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,536$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…b391backed Yes | 16c | 1,666$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…b7d3backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4866…3f3bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,275$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ced…c076backed Yes | 18c | 1,146$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…b127backed Yes | 1c | 950.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…cae2backed Yes | 38c | 793.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3c…110bbacked Yes | 21c | 701.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd32…c9c1backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 71c | 569.66$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 2c | 558.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 16c | 501.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 19c | 421.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…bd99backed Yes | 26c | 391.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 19c | 321.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…0c22backed Yes | 5c | 312.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 283.86$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…d798backed Yes | 14c | 250$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…a15cbacked Yes | 13c | 233.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 56c | 201.7$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa4…1a71backed Yes | 14c | 196.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 194.1$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…f81abacked Yes | 22c | 179.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe238…a3e1backed Yes | 18c | 172.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 167.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa367…cfcebacked Yes | 20c | 163.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 79c | 162$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 16c | 151.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 80c | 148.29$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 7c | 145.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 127.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ca…1076backed Yes | 26c | 109.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 107.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…163dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d0…9246backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…65b9backed Yes | 19c | 86.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 16c | 84.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 74c | 67.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 63.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…8e79backed Yes | 21c | 60.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +156%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ea…d43cbacked Yes | 24c | 57.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f11…53dcbacked Yes | 26c | 49.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 23c | 44.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 76c | 40.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 150 and 164 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?this page
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win 180 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?No won
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 120 and 134 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Yes won
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 135 and 149 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?No won
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 165 and 179 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?No won
- Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.