Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94601b7bfb07ca698c83904eb88f0a014426f351902c241e2e6b9244cae1050f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 44c | 10,387$4,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,578.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 0c | 10,154$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 52c | 4,642$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.63 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 3,883$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 19c | 3,801$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,078.77 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 56c | 2,142$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.6 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 1c | 1,452$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 36c | 1,172$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.22 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 51c | 1,060$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.59 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 931.82$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.55 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 71c | 755.3$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.75 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 60c | 750$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 674.38$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 31c | 608.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 506.08$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.59 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 47c | 486.74$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.97 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Under | 54c | 461.83$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Under | 53c | 377.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 35c | 362.85$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.05 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 38c | 344.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 72c | 309.63$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.93 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 292.56$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.07 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 35c | 278.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.92 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Over | 49c | 234$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 49c | 227$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 50c | 219.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 39c | 181.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 17c | 171$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Under | 53c | 160.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 57c | 130$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…6a24backed Over | 61c | 124.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Over | 59c | 123.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 42c | 108.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…472bbacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…78efbacked Over | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 38c | 96.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…e2c0backed Under | 74c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Over | 24c | 84.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +319.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 36c | 70.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed Under | 65c | 60.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 35c | 57.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…e592backed Under | 60c | 56.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 50c | 56.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…bd99backed Over | 57c | 53.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Under | 65c | 52.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Under | 65c | 50.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…2decbacked Over | 64c | 47.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…4c59backed Over | 60c | 43.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 63c | 42.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 52c | 38.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225f…5978backed Under | 57c | 35.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 36c | 30.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…f828backed Under | 65c | 30.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…039dbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Under | 65c | 22.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…3a43backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Under | 63c | 19.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 70c | 16.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 74c | 16.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.