Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9732475749bef0253595fd9ab29232123fd7beff03b2f3b6afbfec36c6da811d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SC Freiburgof Hamburger SV, SC Freiburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked SC Freiburg | 32c | 2,890$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Hamburger SV | 15c | 1,575$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.3 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Hamburger SV | 8c | 1,336$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hamburger SV | 68c | 1,263$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Hamburger SV | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Hamburger SV | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hamburger SV | 13c | 988.01$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Hamburger SV | 11c | 435.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hamburger SV | 11c | 322.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Hamburger SV | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…eff9backed SC Freiburg | 58c | 275$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Hamburger SV | 26c | 260$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Hamburger SV | 43c | 188.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Hamburger SV | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hamburger SV | 13c | 148.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…2869backed Hamburger SV | 27c | 145.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +429.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed SC Freiburg | 69c | 110.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Hamburger SV | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Hamburger SV | 36c | 76.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Hamburger SV | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed SC Freiburg | 33c | 61.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Hamburger SV | 74c | 55.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed SC Freiburg | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed SC Freiburg | 73c | 35.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed SC Freiburg | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Hamburger SV | 75c | 26.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Hamburger SV | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hamburger SV | 67c | 20.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)this page
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.