Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x416b4ed96c984810824a2a5e040bc1c0709561432153cb5028ff26e481058e30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2d9…26a2backed Yes | 63c | 3,104$1,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 2,474$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.2 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 37c | 692.32$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.68 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 37c | 450$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 37c | 449.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 38c | 413.87$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.27 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 37c | 299.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 62c | 217.74$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 61c | 186.26$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 62c | 162.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d76…6fd4backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…57afbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 41c | 79.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9043…af14backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3350…9588backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 59c | 57.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…2decbacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ba…2404backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked No | 38c | 44.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed No | 40c | 42.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 38c | 41.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Yes | 58c | 33.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…441fbacked Yes | 62c | 26.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…65dcbacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…225ebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.