Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1b83f74f6ebd26f19005a605659bd5e4cf65eafe5e7c13a718fe3f38d573aa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 4,199$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.66 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Under | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.97 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 59c | 3,910$2,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.21 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 1c | 3,754$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 3,738$2,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 2,566$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.49 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 57c | 2,441$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.07 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…3051backed Under | 47c | 2,087$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 41c | 1,332$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.03 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 1,046$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.81 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 19c | 926.14$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.03 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 57c | 489.18$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.35 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 43c | 344.93$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 57c | 309.18$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.95 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e68…16c7backed Over | 58c | 257.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 57c | 220$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…1b9cbacked Over | 60c | 176.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 6c | 175.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 59c | 169.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa410…f61fbacked Over | 59c | 166.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 41c | 156.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 42c | 131.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 57c | 131.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Over | 57c | 130.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 42c | 104.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 42c | 104.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 36c | 95.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…2ebbbacked Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 59c | 59.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 59c | 56.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Over | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Over | 56c | 44.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 74c | 44.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 58c | 41.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…2decbacked Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 41c | 41.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Over | 57c | 36.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 42c | 33.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…f166backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 56c | 32.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Over | 59c | 28.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 65c | 27.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…9303backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 58c | 20.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 66c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 69c | 17.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.