Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0965a979e94c0c914826db8c12a9222d21897f09360c131e4ca7738f2cbdc023
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 37c | 3,835$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.94 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 2,374$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.46 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 33c | 1,997$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.1 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 56c | 1,500$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.36 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Under | 16c | 1,276$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.52 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Under | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 51c | 877.59$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.02 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 874.07$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.22 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Under | 12c | 809.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 63c | 740$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.2 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 72c | 720.84$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.84 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Under | 24c | 409.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Under | 35c | 371.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…e592backed Under | 8c | 364.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 71c | 324.65$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.09 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 64c | 275.24$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.03 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 257.55$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed Under | 20c | 197.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Under | 17c | 190.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 182$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 6c | 170.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Under | 28c | 157.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 146.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 72c | 138.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 70cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 64c | 107.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…f828backed Under | 18c | 107.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 64c | 104.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 51c | 93.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 34c | 88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Under | 17c | 86.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 70c | 67.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Under | 50c | 52.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…070fbacked Under | 60c | 49.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 70c | 31.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 66c | 29.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 36c | 28.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 63c | 16.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.