TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$195,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$191,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,518 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6872…876fbacked No0c34,287$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.89613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd49…03b8backed No8c6,553$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae2…1032backed No29c4,648$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.982334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c3,140$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.15071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d3…82e1backed Yes79c2,907$2,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.523551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No14c2,329$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.6449023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6b…dca2backed No5c2,120$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6460%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c2,083$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.927135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No4c2,083$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x813c…073dbacked No6c2,063$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes70c1,922$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56914854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No6c1,669$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.198833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd2…6c74backed No2c1,478$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41f…7145backed No17c1,420$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.53231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-50.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e19…bd99backed No24c1,353$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202536%9 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed No5c1,331$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.247413.5%10 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes58c1,315$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.2215740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes34c1,311$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.7538237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc936…c80cbacked No62c1,297$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No4c1,200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6542311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes77c1,200$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28119639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No22c1,191$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.0219739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked No12c1,158$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13710513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e0…6303backed No27c1,137$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb046…1d31backed No9c1,128$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c79…fdf7backed No4c1,080$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47a5…6834backed No26c1,037$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.628033.8%27 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No11c1,018$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9310913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No2c990.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3711816.1%19 W · 99 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70e0…6821backed No10c879.7$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-81.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed Yes66c764.78$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.022634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34b5…8babbacked Yes64c725.21$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.58580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes74c722.43$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.11330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb29…f60cbacked No14c693.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a96…8f44backed No41c682.65$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.521844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No17c666$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.224520%9 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid+91.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7df…e742backed No49c657.57$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9404…093bbacked No8c639.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes64c622$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54dc…f5cfbacked No5c609.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe66e…e98bbacked No7c600$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…18e4backed Yes75c600$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No19c595.92$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1158457.1%48 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No11c569.41$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.762036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c7f…60ffbacked No36c561.9$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+51.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c43…39aabacked No9c558.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+184.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0d…53f7backed No11c507.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.497136.6%26 W · 45 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No18c505.12$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4125843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69fd…b2f0backed No17c499.97$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick22cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked No6c499.13$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.95812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-80.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed No7c499$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.939825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf1b…8306backed No5c496.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-39.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7863…217abacked No4c479.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x991a…784ebacked No7c473$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No23c457.17$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.811,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed No26c426.15$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.84327.9%12 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fb7…cf03backed No6c424.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+205.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce83…ca77backed No5c424.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes70c413$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.633337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No20c408.85$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2247334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d25…ee0abacked No23c405.49$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.881338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa9…7a0ebacked No36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf86f…256fbacked No8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326450%32 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7232243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed No40c399.98$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.996533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed No13c394.08$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527837.2%29 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f1…d1bfbacked No7c393.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd4…2f17backed No4c389.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…ea5dbacked Yes68c388.22$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.633250%16 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+48.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd43b…5913backed No26c386.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+282.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No20c379.3$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.321233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc0f…e8dfbacked No27c375.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked No37c371.34$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.765425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked No21c371.26$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.862227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes49c369.98$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcaa9…bd61backed No5c368.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe654…e153backed No4c367.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.96520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f9…f701backed No69c362.42$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe705…a4d0backed Yes72c359.03$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.03955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4224…b2dabacked Yes67c357.89$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.941060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb88…4c4cbacked No28c352.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2461…f240backed Yes73c346.75$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.441758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+33.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe3ae…217abacked No3c340.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.235911.9%7 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a0…db2ebacked Yes76c321.5$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.535939%23 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9336…e8f6backed No16c316.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa28f…4222backed No32c314.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fae…6277backed No32c312.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x687e…540ebacked No15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea9…6d52backed No7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206319%12 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc574…b9dabacked No18c299.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.691050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a52…3e04backed Yes75c284$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-57.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7511…a568backed No55c268.13$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4840%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No32c266.48$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9185725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5a22…17a6backed Yes62c261.6$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.68457.1%48 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8661…cc59backed No8c258.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-53.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7d…cb1fbacked Yes79c253.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f91…7e82backed No16c247.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb37…0323backed No7c244.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No25c244$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bfd…a9babacked No7c242.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.