Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15cca165f65457b0766fa93a0792353a6f25d3fb12145c312df8755817cf86de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 0c | 34,287$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…03b8backed No | 8c | 6,553$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae2…1032backed No | 29c | 4,648$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.98 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 3,140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed Yes | 79c | 2,907$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.52 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 14c | 2,329$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.64 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…dca2backed No | 5c | 2,120$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 2,083$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 4c | 2,083$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…073dbacked No | 6c | 2,063$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 70c | 1,922$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 6c | 1,669$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…6c74backed No | 2c | 1,478$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed No | 17c | 1,420$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…bd99backed No | 24c | 1,353$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed No | 5c | 1,331$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 58c | 1,315$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.22 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 34c | 1,311$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.75 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc936…c80cbacked No | 62c | 1,297$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 77c | 1,200$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 1,191$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.02 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked No | 12c | 1,158$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e0…6303backed No | 27c | 1,137$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…1d31backed No | 9c | 1,128$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…fdf7backed No | 4c | 1,080$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed No | 26c | 1,037$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.62 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 11c | 1,018$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.93 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 2c | 990.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…6821backed No | 10c | 879.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 66c | 764.78$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.02 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34b5…8babbacked Yes | 64c | 725.21$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes | 74c | 722.43$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…f60cbacked No | 14c | 693.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…8f44backed No | 41c | 682.65$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 17c | 666$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7df…e742backed No | 49c | 657.57$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9404…093bbacked No | 8c | 639.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes | 64c | 622$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54dc…f5cfbacked No | 5c | 609.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…e98bbacked No | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…18e4backed Yes | 75c | 600$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 19c | 595.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 11c | 569.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7f…60ffbacked No | 36c | 561.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c43…39aabacked No | 9c | 558.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed No | 11c | 507.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 18c | 505.12$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 17c | 499.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 22cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked No | 6c | 499.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 7c | 499$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 5c | 496.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…217abacked No | 4c | 479.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…784ebacked No | 7c | 473$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 457.17$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed No | 26c | 426.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…cf03backed No | 6c | 424.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…ca77backed No | 5c | 424.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 70c | 413$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 20c | 408.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d25…ee0abacked No | 23c | 405.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked No | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…256fbacked No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 40c | 399.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed No | 13c | 394.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f1…d1bfbacked No | 7c | 393.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd4…2f17backed No | 4c | 389.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…ea5dbacked Yes | 68c | 388.22$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd43b…5913backed No | 26c | 386.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +282.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 20c | 379.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…e8dfbacked No | 27c | 375.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked No | 37c | 371.34$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.76 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 21c | 371.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 49c | 369.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.09 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa9…bd61backed No | 5c | 368.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe654…e153backed No | 4c | 367.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f9…f701backed No | 69c | 362.42$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe705…a4d0backed Yes | 72c | 359.03$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…b2dabacked Yes | 67c | 357.89$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…4c4cbacked No | 28c | 352.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 73c | 346.75$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 3c | 340.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…db2ebacked Yes | 76c | 321.5$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9336…e8f6backed No | 16c | 316.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28f…4222backed No | 32c | 314.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fae…6277backed No | 32c | 312.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687e…540ebacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…6d52backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc574…b9dabacked No | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 75c | 284$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…a568backed No | 55c | 268.13$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 266.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 62c | 261.6$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…cc59backed No | 8c | 258.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…cb1fbacked Yes | 79c | 253.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7e82backed No | 16c | 247.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb37…0323backed No | 7c | 244.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 25c | 244$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…a9babacked No | 7c | 242.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?this page
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 12, 2026?No won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.