Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4634c0dcf311e11755ef9f1571394f061a3bfdf64843800583eb183078ff099
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe333…b1e4backed No | 2c | 5,868$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 6c | 3,758$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.28 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 20c | 2,556$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.94 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 2,110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 2,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 1c | 1,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec5f…2a90backed Yes | 74c | 1,414$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 5c | 1,301$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…7c9bbacked No | 17c | 1,156$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…2945backed No | 45c | 1,123$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…9f59backed No | 13c | 999.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked No | 17c | 986.19$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.91 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 831.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 72c | 762$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.36 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 28c | 762$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b49…ab21backed No | 4c | 737.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa9…bd61backed No | 3c | 634.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 17c | 507.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +10.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 12c | 497.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 21c | 438.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec9…cf38backed No | 12c | 425.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked Yes | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 17c | 399.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 14c | 396.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 8c | 366.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 21c | 344.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…6821backed No | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa757…f01fbacked No | 11c | 324.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 5c | 320.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…af68backed No | 12c | 299.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 72c | 296.83$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 75c | 279.01$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 15c | 236.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b5…a272backed No | 6c | 221.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 42c | 211.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +12.3wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…15d0backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e5a1backed Yes | 79c | 183.18$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 11c | 181.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…92f8backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…9dfbbacked No | 14c | 144.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 29c | 133.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +16.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 39c | 114$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 110.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 14c | 106.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 12c | 102.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…6c74backed No | 12c | 101.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc529…4628backed Yes | 80c | 101.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 77.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 14c | 72.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…37d5backed No | 27c | 55.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…e3ddbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 32c | 34.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 44c | 30.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…5568backed Yes | 68c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 68c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd2…dd42backed Yes | 75c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 64c | 16.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?this page
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 12, 2026?No won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.