Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc26f4a4d53981d51b70be627f4998704c08220efcc757cd46f0a83566c5bce38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 6c | 3,742$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.3 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,458$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.37 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…00c8backed Yes | 4c | 1,955$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 8cpaid | +212.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,663$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,662$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b4…9a13backed Yes | 13c | 1,659$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +1,941.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,218$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,116$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 4c | 963.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…f457backed Yes | 3c | 558.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 529.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 468.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…20f2backed Yes | 39c | 457.51$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…b158backed Yes | 2c | 456.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…306bbacked Yes | 5c | 450.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb289…59ccbacked Yes | 7c | 450$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 8c | 437.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…fdf7backed Yes | 19c | 436.14$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 8c | 436.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…5bfabacked Yes | 27c | 421.82$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 402.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed Yes | 26c | 392.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 17c | 390$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 4c | 387.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c61fbacked Yes | 4c | 380.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 8c | 380.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e1…2304backed Yes | 3c | 365.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…9a72backed Yes | 6c | 339.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb264…eb03backed Yes | 5c | 311.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 4c | 268.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 76c | 264.89$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 5c | 263.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 5c | 254.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 10c | 248.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 22c | 222.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 5c | 202.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0904…7c36backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e8…3664backed Yes | 10c | 155.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 54c | 155.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…2ee5backed Yes | 22c | 142.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…57ffbacked Yes | 20c | 131.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9570…63e3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8800…10b7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…2610backed Yes | 12c | 88.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 43c | 85.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes | 43c | 83.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 48c | 42.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 78c | 34.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 12, 2026?this page
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.