World Politics · resolved market
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90c78bed40dc3933ab08262de9c2a82de26d661ff0c19de1cc07656374c721fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,204 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 1c | 20,041$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa588…cf6bbacked Yes | 6c | 12,203$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389f…5ec9backed Yes | 5c | 7,661$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,624$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 6,550$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62db…f6c6backed Yes | 1c | 5,711$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ad…276dbacked Yes | 13c | 5,381$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a6…eef2backed Yes | 8c | 5,357$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 5,256$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 2c | 4,746$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,704$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…cae2backed Yes | 5c | 4,426$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…02e0backed Yes | 3c | 3,717$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,588$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 3,349$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,175$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…3c82backed Yes | 5c | 3,022$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 5c | 2,479$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.79 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 2,362$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,224$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…80aebacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 1,963$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8606…89f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,820$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,738$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,595$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…bd99backed Yes | 1c | 1,551$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 1,546$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,490$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,441$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 1,435$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…5267backed Yes | 9c | 1,399$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…b391backed Yes | 3c | 1,305$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…adc7backed Yes | 6c | 1,269$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,241$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 1,188$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 11c | 1,126$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…8e32backed Yes | 6c | 1,118$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 3c | 1,070$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f0…90f4backed Yes | 10c | 960.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 810.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…8b74backed Yes | 8c | 766.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6632…92a0backed Yes | 2c | 741.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 586.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…c42cbacked Yes | 7c | 535.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…a15cbacked Yes | 5c | 531.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…6b9fbacked Yes | 6c | 460.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa500…fa29backed Yes | 11c | 453.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 441.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19e…c91ebacked Yes | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fc…e51dbacked Yes | 6c | 415.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…2b14backed Yes | 5c | 394.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…0d27backed Yes | 4c | 356.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…b007backed Yes | 9c | 341.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…b209backed Yes | 6c | 335.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe811…3fcebacked Yes | 6c | 333.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 315.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9170…6ecfbacked Yes | 18c | 286.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…b032backed Yes | 16c | 279.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 12c | 250.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 240.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…4384backed Yes | 8c | 191.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 176.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…e0f5backed Yes | 6c | 158.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa034…9defbacked Yes | 9c | 120.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?this page
- Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?Yes won
- Will Chaikasem Nitisiri be the next prime minister of Thailand?No won
- Will Julapun Amornvivat be the next prime minister of Thailand?No won
- Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?No won
- Will Paetongtarn Shinawatra be the next prime minister of Thailand?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.