Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ec657a7be515cd602994a721ff4e2135e61bf7319354e1fafd40a97f1a1ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7234…e457backed Yes | 0c | 10,801$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…1f1abacked Yes | 0c | 7,210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 17c | 400$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 350.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 330.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 36c | 197.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 63c | 188.26$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 65c | 172.78$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 157.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 30c | 148.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 35c | 148.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…b433backed Yes | 47c | 135.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 38c | 123.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 65c | 122.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 71c | 120.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c6…2e23backed Yes | 47c | 97.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 67c | 96.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 35c | 95.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 92.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 31c | 91.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 64c | 89.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 35c | 86.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 37c | 80.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 79.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…ea34backed Yes | 44c | 79.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 37c | 73.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 34c | 64.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 61.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 56.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 38c | 55.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 72c | 52.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 51.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 36c | 50.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 61c | 49.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 48.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 65c | 44.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 68c | 40.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7232…f58bbacked Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 39c | 36.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 35.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 34.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 37c | 33.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 36c | 32.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 31.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 59c | 29.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 35c | 29.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 66c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 67c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.