Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf47a66fa8f92bbfb4c1fb533b0b4542f2c08c23ba7e0ad78a6488c06697ae6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ca8…25c0backed Yes | 0c | 8,281$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 72c | 1,361$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.21 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 10c | 1,017$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 435.45$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 7c | 407.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 366.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 9c | 264.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.4 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 19c | 197$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 189.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 189.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 60c | 176.7$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 11c | 167.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.25 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 68c | 157.65$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 105.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 57c | 99.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 33c | 96.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 76c | 95.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 35c | 92.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…ea34backed Yes | 38c | 83.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked Yes | 47c | 83.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 75.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 65c | 74.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 28c | 70.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked No | 70c | 69.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 38c | 65.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 46c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 28c | 61.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 67c | 60.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 21c | 53.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 33c | 51.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 47c | 48.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 32c | 47.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 32c | 47.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 73c | 44.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed Yes | 33c | 43.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 33c | 42.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 74c | 41.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 39.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 38.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…a89ebacked No | 68c | 37.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 33.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 32.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 30.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 77c | 30.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 68c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 67c | 28.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 63c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 68c | 22.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked Yes | 66c | 17.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 75c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.