TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Paxos win the USDH ticker?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,200,931
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,017,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,200,931 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 358 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2daf…87f0backed Yes24c59,559$14,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,578.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c40,694$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.381712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce35…ab3cbacked Yes6c34,524$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.52425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes0c31,633$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.32147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-86.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f3…6316backed Yes0c26,642$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8af…1c8cbacked Yes12c24,135$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf7a…3de0backed Yes19c22,378$4,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,323.521625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe714…d510backed Yes13c21,875$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,748.031833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x591f…5610backed Yes0c20,886$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a1…6877backed Yes5c19,025$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.27520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-72.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41a…1935backed Yes6c17,994$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.36166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick24cpaid-91.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7474…4ebabacked Yes16c16,754$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,66710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49aa…917abacked Yes5c16,551$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c14,545$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.68573.5%2 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd762…1e56backed Yes4c12,602$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.17220%0 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7900…66bebacked Yes4c12,355$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc732…097bbacked Yes7c12,189$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa66c…cd67backed Yes10c12,146$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe29…b4b9backed Yes8c11,714$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.761338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes7c11,116$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.42540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes4c11,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502825%7 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19a3…06e9backed Yes18c10,736$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ac…c710backed Yes7c10,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6359…de88backed Yes5c9,729$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9436…029dbacked Yes5c9,102$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10c0…21b5backed Yes8c9,001$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b6…1a80backed Yes22c8,959$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0db…d693backed Yes5c8,717$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b83…e4c7backed Yes9c8,641$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d23…1895backed Yes37c8,606$3,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,182.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes1c8,171$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.02714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-69.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes5c8,024$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.361346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ec6…d8c1backed Yes23c7,806$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+33.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c7,288$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.967663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c7,280$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.766227.4%17 W · 45 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c6,969$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.341827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+98.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x039f…80cfbacked Yes12c6,821$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd594…77ecbacked Yes6c6,794$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb7f…ab13backed Yes5c6,666$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07a0…03f6backed No64c6,124$3,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d93…b19cbacked Yes7c6,112$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes7c6,074$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.58425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4a…4f22backed Yes8c5,962$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes4c5,937$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.87407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-76.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes9c5,712$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+31.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd2e2…3868backed Yes18c5,608$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4495…429fbacked Yes7c5,486$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x513c…259bbacked Yes44c5,445$2,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,378.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe20…c8fabacked Yes20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aba…eea1backed Yes22c4,921$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.27616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2430…512bbacked Yes11c4,826$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd5…c8f1backed Yes39c4,456$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa511…18a3backed Yes4c4,263$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf17d…2ebebacked Yes10c4,102$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4911…b065backed Yes5c4,095$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57f0…ba86backed Yes25c4,013$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2655…0c39backed Yes18c3,993$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…d849backed Yes9c3,988$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-20.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc9cf…a08abacked Yes16c3,794$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb060…a900backed Yes7c3,709$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9188…5a25backed Yes5c3,707$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-73%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x992a…5242backed Yes17c3,685$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked Yes4c3,625$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.69633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70a8…2752backed Yes3c3,583$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d55…1503backed No63c3,453$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.71540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x990b…1fd7backed Yes7c3,452$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827b…feb5backed Yes36c3,352$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.7630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf222…49f5backed Yes10c3,349$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e54…a5b0backed Yes6c3,326$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.67742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c3,224$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.2735712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes9c3,106$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.54520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-69.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58fa…5a5abacked Yes42c3,052$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.41520%3 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-72.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75da…ab0dbacked Yes10c3,030$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Yes21c3,000$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab7…387ebacked Yes9c3,000$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747c…e830backed Yes5c2,963$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d1…12b4backed Yes18c2,937$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.340%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0aae…6c41backed Yes21c2,884$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.01633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b42…80e5backed Yes22c2,830$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes4c2,826$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.731030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+46.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60b1…8f2dbacked Yes10c2,772$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes9c2,743$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ba…3cd0backed Yes37c2,735$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes3c2,731$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad9a…c3f4backed Yes4c2,659$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c2,655$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4733329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe5…6d1dbacked No65c2,540$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.63560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5a3…423ebacked Yes20c2,538$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd39f…d494backed Yes9c2,515$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ed…90b2backed Yes2c2,510$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a92…f451backed Yes8c2,490$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes7c2,449$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1423841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2664…3b6cbacked Yes4c2,320$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe67c…299abacked Yes19c2,304$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf14…a90ebacked Yes9c2,299$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3119…9348backed Yes14c2,273$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02e8…f8c5backed Yes9c2,256$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb206…f717backed Yes19c2,206$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a79…df10backed Yes6c2,201$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes2c2,100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6316740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.