Token Launches · resolved market
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4339941ae4a4470d66e29bf99206d3cb4f3649e37b9d57d75be5b7f9d8c1e511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,658,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,963,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,658,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x175b…93aebacked No | 56c | 29,706$16,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,559.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…81f4backed Yes | 76c | 29,105$22,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,076.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…74ffbacked No | 4c | 27,454$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed No | 5c | 21,850$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1295…640dbacked Yes | 55c | 21,360$11,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,595.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c0…21b5backed No | 6c | 20,587$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…e5eebacked Yes | 75c | 20,000$14,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,044.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 19,600$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.15 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…6504backed Yes | 77c | 17,116$13,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,893.09 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…3a7fbacked No | 12c | 14,661$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Yes | 79c | 13,670$10,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,857.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…f024backed Yes | 67c | 13,497$9,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,456.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…e8f3backed No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a0…03f6backed Yes | 65c | 11,684$7,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,143.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 4c | 11,417$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.02 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1d…daf0backed No | 11c | 11,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…f3e9backed No | 27c | 10,928$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3756…f8fbbacked No | 5c | 10,671$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0d…b1dcbacked Yes | 70c | 10,643$7,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,146.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1879…26c0backed Yes | 69c | 10,053$6,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,082.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…f69cbacked No | 10c | 9,851$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 9,193$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.69 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 8,849$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…9752backed No | 23c | 8,202$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…feb5backed No | 41c | 7,874$3,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,209.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…f44cbacked Yes | 66c | 7,298$4,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…2babbacked Yes | 52c | 6,755$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,260.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…e4c7backed No | 8c | 6,628$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 6c | 6,200$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…f78cbacked Yes | 54c | 5,849$3,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,693.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884e…0650backed Yes | 53c | 5,791$3,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd532…1af5backed Yes | 43c | 5,789$2,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…ab0dbacked No | 10c | 5,051$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked No | 8c | 5,014$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc5…0c52backed No | 28c | 5,001$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 45c | 5,000$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.74 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed Yes | 62c | 5,000$3,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.78 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…ec83backed No | 39c | 4,759$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb58c…4a3cbacked No | 44c | 4,746$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…f002backed Yes | 55c | 4,436$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…83debacked Yes | 62c | 4,068$2,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked No | 1c | 4,034$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked No | 8c | 3,725$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2824…9e15backed Yes | 69c | 3,433$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…d376backed No | 42c | 3,422$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 3,396$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe5…6d1dbacked Yes | 56c | 3,106$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb31…8019backed Yes | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed No | 63c | 2,984$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 1c | 2,804$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…8c9bbacked No | 0c | 2,723$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9e…d0a6backed Yes | 71c | 2,569$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c7…bacebacked No | 19c | 2,568$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…f7b7backed No | 19c | 2,321$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 2,310$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.11 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f7…2294backed Yes | 65c | 2,198$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Yes | 61c | 2,110$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 2,084$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.5 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7136…d286backed No | 25c | 2,057$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…dddebacked No | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 41c | 1,977$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.94 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 5c | 1,974$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…320cbacked No | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199e…fa60backed No | 3c | 1,950$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 16c | 1,925$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.98 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 10c | 1,747$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40af…2cfcbacked No | 5c | 1,742$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…1a0cbacked No | 61c | 1,722$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x310c…06d0backed No | 60c | 1,692$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 16c | 1,679$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.3 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dc42backed Yes | 79c | 1,631$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…8c70backed No | 62c | 1,615$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed No | 7c | 1,501$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 10c | 1,400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee3…1715backed Yes | 72c | 1,383$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9753…9d8fbacked Yes | 74c | 1,345$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b19…3531backed No | 4c | 1,332$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 38c | 1,300$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…bc2abacked Yes | 79c | 1,292$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 41c | 1,235$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.42 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 27c | 1,225$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 53c | 1,213$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6694…9c46backed No | 50c | 1,206$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…e24cbacked Yes | 72c | 1,194$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe784…b0a8backed No | 8c | 1,190$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b4b9backed Yes | 51c | 1,181$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…3f34backed No | 11c | 1,090$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…5799backed No | 7c | 1,063$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…cb63backed Yes | 69c | 1,040$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d8…9b3bbacked No | 8c | 1,032$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…9ba5backed Yes | 77c | 1,030$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…768fbacked No | 9c | 1,008$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…9da2backed Yes | 78c | 1,005$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…9da9backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…35e5backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed No | 4c | 987.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 42c | 982.9$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.41 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 6c | 961.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?this page
- Will Agora win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Ethena win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Frax win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Paxos win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Sky win the USDH ticker?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.