TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,658,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,963,474

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,658,696 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x175b…93aebacked No56c29,706$16,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,559.811533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe704…81f4backed Yes76c29,105$22,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,076.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x008a…74ffbacked No4c27,454$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed No5c21,850$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.252123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1295…640dbacked Yes55c21,360$11,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,595.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10c0…21b5backed No6c20,587$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6203…e5eebacked Yes75c20,000$14,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,044.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No2c19,600$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.151712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39ec…6504backed Yes77c17,116$13,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,893.092958.6%17 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+26.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd863…3a7fbacked No12c14,661$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked Yes79c13,670$10,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,857.081540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe577…f024backed Yes67c13,497$9,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,456.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c2…e8f3backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-56.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07a0…03f6backed Yes65c11,684$7,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,143.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No4c11,417$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.026713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a1d…daf0backed No11c11,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…f3e9backed No27c10,928$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3756…f8fbbacked No5c10,671$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0d…b1dcbacked Yes70c10,643$7,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,146.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1879…26c0backed Yes69c10,053$6,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,082.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfc…f69cbacked No10c9,851$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No5c9,193$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.69573.5%2 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c8,849$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.826227.4%17 W · 45 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9602…9752backed No23c8,202$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…feb5backed No41c7,874$3,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,209.6230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x679f…f44cbacked Yes66c7,298$4,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,482.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…2babbacked Yes52c6,755$3,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,260.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b83…e4c7backed No8c6,628$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No6c6,200$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.42934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcca…f78cbacked Yes54c5,849$3,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,693.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x884e…0650backed Yes53c5,791$3,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,706.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd532…1af5backed Yes43c5,789$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,302.652100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75da…ab0dbacked No10c5,051$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked No8c5,014$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.1660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc5…0c52backed No28c5,001$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed No45c5,000$2,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.743119.4%6 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-58.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6606…1338backed Yes62c5,000$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,924.782454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d0…ec83backed No39c4,759$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.67520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-68.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb58c…4a3cbacked No44c4,746$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01f0…f002backed Yes55c4,436$2,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba3…83debacked Yes62c4,068$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.02560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No1c4,034$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.54714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked No8c3,725$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2824…9e15backed Yes69c3,433$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff3…d376backed No42c3,422$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.54714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-72.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c3,396$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.927663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafe5…6d1dbacked Yes56c3,106$1,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.02560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb31…8019backed Yes70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9518…c9e3backed No63c2,984$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.261118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No1c2,804$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.881827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+98.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d5c…8c9bbacked No0c2,723$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a9e…d0a6backed Yes71c2,569$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c7…bacebacked No19c2,568$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bec…f7b7backed No19c2,321$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.61030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+46.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No13c2,310$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.1133329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f7…2294backed Yes65c2,198$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.46560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Yes61c2,110$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c2,084$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.535712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7136…d286backed No25c2,057$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.18520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-73.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb568…dddebacked No45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No41c1,977$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.9423841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No5c1,974$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0215041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f33…320cbacked No51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x199e…fa60backed No3c1,950$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No16c1,925$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.987126.8%19 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed No10c1,747$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.53633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40af…2cfcbacked No5c1,742$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6f…1a0cbacked No61c1,722$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x310c…06d0backed No60c1,692$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No16c1,679$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.3147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-77.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3753…dc42backed Yes79c1,631$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.84683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+53.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ae2…8c70backed No62c1,615$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.02944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed No7c1,501$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.753141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No10c1,400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee3…1715backed Yes72c1,383$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-65.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9753…9d8fbacked Yes74c1,345$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b19…3531backed No4c1,332$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No38c1,300$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9781…bc2abacked Yes79c1,292$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No41c1,235$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.426123%14 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No27c1,225$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.35850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+108.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No53c1,213$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.161747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6694…9c46backed No50c1,206$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b34…e24cbacked Yes72c1,194$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe784…b0a8backed No8c1,190$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe29…b4b9backed Yes51c1,181$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.391338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…3f34backed No11c1,090$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ea…5799backed No7c1,063$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5643…cb63backed Yes69c1,040$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d8…9b3bbacked No8c1,032$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb18c…9ba5backed Yes77c1,030$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc4…768fbacked No9c1,008$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.571118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-70.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbdc…9da2backed Yes78c1,005$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa946…9da9backed No60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54bb…35e5backed No30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-66.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa920…be41backed No4c987.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5300%0 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes42c982.9$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.414544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No6c961.54$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.031216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-73.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.