Token Launches · resolved market
Will Frax win the USDH ticker?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fd39b5eb4bf5aad3946cad8a9db44819b7eb3f4144375a5eab35765b6b12875
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a1d…daf0backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…5d02backed Yes | 1c | 18,782$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb370…1e7fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…cbfebacked Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…69d8backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e58…1f70backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb4…4961backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,733$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ea…eee3backed Yes | 1c | 9,546$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,754$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…2752backed Yes | 1c | 3,292$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 3,175$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3044…5bd6backed Yes | 1c | 2,572$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,078$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7745…51bbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,251$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…ce9ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,189$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34f…212ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,084$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…3022backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec7…367fbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 117.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…f73dbacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 21c | 74.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc669…ae2bbacked No | 78c | 64.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frax win the USDH ticker?this page
- Will Agora win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Ethena win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?Yes won
- Will Paxos win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Sky win the USDH ticker?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.