Token Launches · resolved market
Will Agora win the USDH ticker?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74a09ea991a7009af936e1eb1a5f25c69b08f876379f0e5e30c652039f34a440
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $303,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a1d…daf0backed Yes | 0c | 99,267$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0963…533bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…c488backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344a…ff54backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…00f9backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e1…1960backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…e8f3backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2852…f4b1backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 1c | 8,918$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 4,067$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f0…5d00backed Yes | 1c | 1,982$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a3…b675backed Yes | 1c | 1,938$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,636$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe5…6d1dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,234$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 2c | 1,081$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…026fbacked Yes | 13c | 760.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 4c | 667$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 536.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec7…367fbacked Yes | 4c | 494.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c05…850abacked Yes | 10c | 202.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…4f3cbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Agora win the USDH ticker?this page
- Will Ethena win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Frax win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?Yes won
- Will Paxos win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Sky win the USDH ticker?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.