Token Launches · resolved market
Will Sky win the USDH ticker?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2653392e40b7d65e9967343186ae894bd43a4da6e91b3ad6e7ceb7d5be936187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $494,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $379,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $494,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 2c | 223,265$5,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,456.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1d…daf0backed Yes | 0c | 105,393$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,324$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…8c9bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,598$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee3…1715backed Yes | 11c | 6,597$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,513$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,536$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…b9e5backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 2c | 4,822$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…5a25backed Yes | 0c | 3,386$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -73%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…2752backed Yes | 12c | 3,375$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,845$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f1…58babacked Yes | 1c | 2,710$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d2…70b6backed Yes | 5c | 2,146$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…cb86backed Yes | 1c | 2,069$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…35e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,758$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…1dadbacked Yes | 6c | 1,508$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,476$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed Yes | 3c | 1,429$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 5c | 1,244$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…e9a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,184$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5c…852abacked Yes | 4c | 735.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…be4ebacked Yes | 12c | 700$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a7…163dbacked Yes | 5c | 699.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…25cfbacked Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ef…7ae8backed Yes | 6c | 452.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 445.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ef…18e2backed Yes | 11c | 427.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…46c6backed Yes | 32c | 391.57$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 4c | 387$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…6e55backed Yes | 15c | 330.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…9f34backed Yes | 16c | 320.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a0…84c6backed Yes | 6c | 309.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe5…6d1dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…83debacked Yes | 9c | 211.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…b15fbacked Yes | 6c | 210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 15c | 206.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb91…0a37backed Yes | 15c | 184.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b2…469abacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…5753backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…da96backed Yes | 21c | 130.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…7abcbacked Yes | 34c | 87.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…8c3abacked Yes | 28c | 70.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sky win the USDH ticker?this page
- Will Agora win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Ethena win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Frax win the USDH ticker?No won
- Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?Yes won
- Will Paxos win the USDH ticker?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.