TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x76c5…25cf

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: College Football, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 51 out of 100; worst MLB at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST3122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10.67
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$43
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+1,011.1%+$252.78
Seahawks vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$32.16
Bears vs. 49ersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$43
Steelers vs. Lionsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+103.9%+$187
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+96.1%+$96.08
Dolphins vs. Steelersbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Packers vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Eagles vs. Packersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5.75
Steelers vs. Bengalsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Bears vs. Commandersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$154.8
Bills vs. Falconsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
Dolphins vs. Billsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$53
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.85
Commanders vs. Eaglesbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Caleb Williams win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$13.95
Cowboys vs. Eaglesbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$21
Seahawks vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$59.75
Chiefs vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$68
Saints vs. Packersbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$65
Buccaneers vs. Cowboysbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$58.67
Will the Bears win the NFC North?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$14
Bears vs. Lionsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$84.99
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-76.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 7, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Panthersbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Senators vs. Oilersbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$15.5
Kraken vs. Avalanchebacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$27.82
All 3 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+89.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Ohio Statebacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+278.6%+$75.21
Miami vs. Ohio State: O/U 40.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sky win the USDH ticker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5 released in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$19
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3)backed Change The Game · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.