TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Dodgers vs. Blue Jays

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blue Jaysof Dodgers, Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,331,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,289,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,331,430 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 862 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Blue Jays42c428,349$181,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246,478.761145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Dodgers53c412,022$218,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218,828.751,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5afb…4511backed Blue Jays41c405,800$166,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239,542.421241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Dodgers59c388,075$227,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227,3747753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Dodgers59c383,197$224,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224,504.176653%35 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Blue Jays42c322,473$134,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188,008.842347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Blue Jays41c205,000$84,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120,949.937651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Blue Jays42c160,446$67,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,195.953145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Blue Jays42c147,926$61,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,536.3743949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Dodgers60c147,623$88,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Dodgers50c100,000$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,00053150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Blue Jays42c99,804$41,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,886.551963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Blue Jays42c97,223$40,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,440.594965.3%32 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Blue Jays41c95,000$38,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,049.929462.8%59 W · 35 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Dodgers57c81,834$46,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,761.9811759%69 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Blue Jays45c74,825$33,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,186.2615353.6%82 W · 71 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Dodgers59c70,343$41,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,198.94650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Dodgers57c68,000$38,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,872.7425453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x221d…ab2abacked Dodgers59c58,475$34,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Dodgers57c50,000$28,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,5006855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fce…2229backed Blue Jays49c33,829$16,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,133.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-35.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Dodgers58c31,330$18,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,171.372955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Dodgers1c30,765$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9640629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Blue Jays42c25,282$10,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,658.3278445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Dodgers58c25,000$14,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,499.9926355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Blue Jays56c24,841$13,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,040.321,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Blue Jays42c23,810$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,809.526350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Dodgers58c21,450$12,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,441.284445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3626…19e2backed Dodgers6c20,500$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1701010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-80.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Dodgers58c18,000$10,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,389.947035.7%25 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Dodgers75c17,895$13,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,358.099135.2%32 W · 59 L-12.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Blue Jays42c17,467$7,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,130.6719649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Dodgers6c17,440$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.8796133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Dodgers58c17,107$10,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,002.95560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd42c…c46bbacked Dodgers59c16,947$9,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,998.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f89…433ebacked Dodgers5c15,487$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.17862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Blue Jays58c15,304$8,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,448.581,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…aa2cbacked Dodgers74c14,743$10,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,911.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Dodgers58c14,424$8,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,336.124045%18 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Blue Jays41c13,199$5,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,783.3875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+46.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Blue Jays42c12,725$5,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,380.3413246.2%61 W · 71 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a9a…6a03backed Dodgers51c12,534$6,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,439.12933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Dodgers58c12,069$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Dodgers1c11,347$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.475053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3b…e349backed Dodgers56c10,920$6,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,064812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick47cpaid-76.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe187…b1b5backed Blue Jays42c10,400$4,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0322100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+117.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc0…a79bbacked Dodgers59c10,200$6,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,01820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Dodgers1c10,086$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6047850.4%241 W · 237 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Dodgers58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Blue Jays40c10,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0001050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0b…9f41backed Blue Jays43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,700450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Blue Jays41c10,000$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,899.9941850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…986ebacked Blue Jays42c9,900$4,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7421100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43c9…62b0backed Dodgers10c9,245$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29bf…25b0backed Dodgers57c9,116$5,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,195.85875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Blue Jays33c9,000$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,042.822536%9 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Dodgers58c8,719$5,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,056.763138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-32.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0453…fcf0backed Blue Jays42c8,700$3,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0462100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+117.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x211e…30d1backed Dodgers59c8,642$5,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,096.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Dodgers58c8,620$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.63545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc916…f94cbacked Dodgers59c8,500$5,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,01510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…95e2backed Dodgers2c8,499$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.95185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-66.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…c4efbacked Dodgers59c8,400$4,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,95610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa414…75c9backed Dodgers58c8,000$4,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,64030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Dodgers65c7,852$5,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,110.32,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Dodgers58c7,500$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3507363%46 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Blue Jays73c7,313$5,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.3546239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09f8…e156backed Blue Jays42c7,000$2,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,070.111656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Dodgers58c7,000$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,080757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Dodgers57c6,999$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,989.51,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707b…69f2backed Dodgers59c6,780$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0005745.6%26 W · 31 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Dodgers0c6,722$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.994754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Dodgers59c6,197$3,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,632.7514966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Blue Jays42c6,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,45098149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Dodgers46c5,994$2,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,786.519540%78 W · 117 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81d6…bec9backed Blue Jays43c5,950$2,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,391.56149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfda…4fe6backed Blue Jays44c5,940$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Blue Jays47c5,850$2,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,100.53826.3%10 W · 28 L-6.9wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-42.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Dodgers1c5,740$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.71060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa068…9574backed Blue Jays39c5,594$2,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,389.41546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Dodgers3c5,571$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1616934.9%59 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Blue Jays42c5,500$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1901735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc0…0fa5backed Blue Jays42c5,500$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1901275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+55.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0f1…4365backed Dodgers59c5,300$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x465f…1df2backed Dodgers1c5,292$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c5e…7ab3backed Dodgers58c5,250$3,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,045650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778a…ec9dbacked Dodgers59c5,085$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f5…e1e7backed Dodgers59c5,083$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,99910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Dodgers0c5,009$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.448762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Blue Jays40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Blue Jays42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dodgers57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85044749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Blue Jays42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,899.996660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2adc…6f51backed Blue Jays42c4,400$1,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Blue Jays48c4,376$2,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,261.8660052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa447…cc98backed Dodgers59c4,237$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Dodgers57c3,931$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2587548%36 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdcd…594abacked Dodgers53c3,822$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Dodgers59c3,776$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,227.8494034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a45…dd1dbacked Dodgers58c3,755$2,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,177.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.