MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27157dc91b21e34b74124e8d0ec160b4e26eb5dbcbad6b9b83ee6439d341398f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3151…0977backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 79,504$33,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,975.06 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…2229backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 63,534$39,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,102.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 45,633$25,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,534.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 28,763$10,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,355.55 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 15,196$8,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,142.1 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 10,638$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 3,672$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.71 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 1,542$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.64 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 656.93$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.62 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…5347backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 259.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…92bebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…23adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…3f81backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 62.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 62.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 48cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb98…0275backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdc…efadbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…0c94backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 31.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557f…efa5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 27.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 217 | 53.9%117 W · 100 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Dodgers vs. Blue JaysBlue Jays won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.