CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8a0d3362838863762217c85c6e66b9ab7ac12dcd2290aafb5c0277accae89aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chinggis Warriorsof Change The Game, Chinggis Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Change The Game | 44c | 15,797$6,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,880.33 | 818 | 43.2%353 W · 465 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…5977backed Chinggis Warriors | 61c | 15,115$9,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,886.64 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…44adbacked Change The Game | 29c | 7,587$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.7 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed Change The Game | 49c | 6,144$3,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,025.27 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Change The Game | 49c | 2,152$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.32 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7433…c66cbacked Chinggis Warriors | 56c | 1,900$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.35 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Chinggis Warriors | 57c | 1,818$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.93 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Change The Game | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Change The Game | 38c | 899.98$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.99 | 275 | 30.9%85 W · 190 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Chinggis Warriors | 60c | 747.09$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.09 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Change The Game | 34c | 584.34$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.93 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Chinggis Warriors | 47c | 549.29$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.49 | 215 | 28.8%62 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe7…40ddbacked Change The Game | 45c | 444.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…2e1fbacked Change The Game | 47c | 428.38$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Change The Game | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Change The Game | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.91 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Change The Game | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Change The Game | 38c | 330$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Chinggis Warriors | 65c | 257.55$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Change The Game | 69c | 241.7$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…de95backed Chinggis Warriors | 64c | 238.33$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…7eeabacked Change The Game | 65c | 213.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked Change The Game | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…d868backed Change The Game | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Chinggis Warriors | 51c | 186.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.81 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…2874backed Change The Game | 68c | 185.76$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82a6…af86backed Chinggis Warriors | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Chinggis Warriors | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…9200backed Chinggis Warriors | 57c | 110.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Change The Game | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 598 | 39.6%237 W · 361 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Change The Game | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Change The Game | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…b729backed Change The Game | 70c | 87.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…0acbbacked Chinggis Warriors | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Change The Game | 38c | 79.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Chinggis Warriors | 20c | 70.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 101 | 11.9%12 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cc…a9d0backed Chinggis Warriors | 49c | 69.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…3344backed Change The Game | 49c | 57.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…e40bbacked Change The Game | 80c | 50.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…25cfbacked Change The Game | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Change The Game | 63c | 39.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 184 | 43.5%80 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Chinggis Warriors | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 242 | 49.2%119 W · 123 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…4394backed Change The Game | 80c | 27.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Change The Game | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed Chinggis Warriors | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Change The Game | 67c | 23.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…9a55backed Change The Game | 65c | 19.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.