NFL · resolved market
Saints vs. Packers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x646f58e9fb7a05559146d5f76c79ebd106acb5ea1320ff379f2715f601b695cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Packersof Saints, Packers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $369,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $369,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Saints | 7c | 110,975$7,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,826.58 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Saints | 9c | 53,562$4,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,824.56 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Saints | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Saints | 10c | 17,717$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Saints | 1c | 17,518$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Saints | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Saints | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Saints | 1c | 9,316$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…16dbbacked Saints | 8c | 6,585$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.16 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Saints | 0c | 5,999$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Saints | 9c | 5,630$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.69 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Saints | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…bb43backed Saints | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Saints | 9c | 4,258$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.7 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…f42dbacked Saints | 6c | 4,020$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.63 | 207 | 33.8%70 W · 137 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…55d4backed Saints | 1c | 3,432$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Saints | 10c | 3,230$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.45 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Saints | 3c | 3,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Saints | 9c | 2,700$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…3d31backed Saints | 1c | 2,700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…e7fcbacked Saints | 7c | 2,396$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7691…dfc0backed Saints | 10c | 2,345$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.52 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Saints | 1c | 2,110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Saints | 10c | 2,005$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.43 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Saints | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6afa…8f06backed Saints | 9c | 1,998$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ec…5124backed Saints | 10c | 1,481$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.06 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25a9…f991backed Saints | 11c | 1,364$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Saints | 2c | 1,266$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Saints | 9c | 1,243$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6c…9a92backed Saints | 9c | 1,062$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Saints | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…0df5backed Saints | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…8b15backed Saints | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…928fbacked Saints | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…3368backed Saints | 10c | 999.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…14efbacked Saints | 8c | 971$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Saints | 3c | 926.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Saints | 11c | 880.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Saints | 9c | 778$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Saints | 9c | 778$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…eb68backed Saints | 11c | 752$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…a309backed Saints | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…b14abacked Saints | 9c | 684.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…2037backed Saints | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Saints | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Saints | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…25cfbacked Saints | 11c | 600$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Saints | 6c | 599.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Saints | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Saints | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 140 | 22.9%32 W · 108 L | -12.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…bfa4backed Saints | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Saints | 9c | 449.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Saints | 9c | 443.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…794bbacked Saints | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Saints | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d0…034abacked Saints | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed Saints | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Saints | 10c | 299$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc569…242abacked Saints | 10c | 286.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Saints | 9c | 274$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Saints | 9c | 254.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…aed7backed Saints | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Saints | 10c | 225$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 240 | 54.6%131 W · 109 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…e88abacked Saints | 10c | 214.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Saints | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ec…1af7backed Saints | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75eb…25bfbacked Saints | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf26…9970backed Saints | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Saints | 9c | 194$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…6e0ebacked Saints | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Saints | 10c | 138.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…2e65backed Saints | 10c | 117.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…87e8backed Saints | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked Saints | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.