NFL · resolved market

Bears vs. Lions

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b8289a8c04610e8f7e0cbb03578418176d02b63ba97d9e93d49e230ea670889

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Lionsof Bears, Lions
Resolved: Nov 28, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,513,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,514,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,513,670 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd42f…047dbacked Bears	6c	248,357$15,307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,307.25	324	38%123 W · 201 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Bears	13c	132,725$17,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,449.83	206	34.5%71 W · 135 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Bears	9c	86,762$8,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,014.05	67	34.3%23 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa715…15e2backed Bears	5c	85,253$4,660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,659.94	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed Bears	25c	44,709$10,996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,995.88	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-7.9wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-45%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Bears	7c	37,202$2,464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,464.35	97	32%31 W · 66 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Bears	16c	33,194$5,323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,322.76	273	39.2%107 W · 166 L	-13.1wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Bears	18c	30,000$5,357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,357.14	246	52%128 W · 118 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e44…79c9backed Bears	6c	28,623$1,588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,588.3	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Bears	17c	22,886$3,778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,777.63	143	49%70 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4851…16dbbacked Bears	17c	22,714$3,751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,751.48	212	51.9%110 W · 102 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Bears	16c	19,994$3,217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,217.25	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Bears	15c	19,932$2,897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,897.29	442	46.8%207 W · 235 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd52c…4125backed Bears	3c	15,988$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.99	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bears	17c	11,533$1,961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,960.62	397	54.4%216 W · 181 L	+26.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Bears	12c	10,655$1,286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,286.49	139	42.4%59 W · 80 L	-5.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x986f…cac8backed Bears	7c	10,123$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.96	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Bears	22c	9,780$2,167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,167.25	226	38.9%88 W · 138 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe877…bb43backed Bears	22c	9,265$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	60	28.3%17 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa586…86f5backed Bears	18c	7,881$1,419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,418.55	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Bears	3c	6,933$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.13	333	28.5%95 W · 238 L	+16.7wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Bears	2c	6,649$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.4	431	1.6%7 W · 424 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Bears	6c	6,318$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.01	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+55.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f84…dd89backed Bears	9c	5,371$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-80.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4af1…ef00backed Bears	24c	5,167$1,242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,241.7	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Bears	15c	4,740$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$695.01	318	48.1%153 W · 165 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0e…72ebbacked Bears	17c	4,082$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693.89	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b42…5c03backed Bears	6c	3,733$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.58	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1db1…35a9backed Bears	29c	3,724$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080.48	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72db…27b0backed Bears	6c	3,353$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb173…ed42backed Bears	11c	3,318$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.94	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb09…c152backed Bears	18c	3,244$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc88…681abacked Bears	18c	3,167$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.18per pick	45cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x719d…4e73backed Bears	15c	2,800$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7aa0…6382backed Bears	18c	2,500$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Bears	18c	2,500$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.99	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	-5.6wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Bears	17c	2,239$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.6	343	49.3%169 W · 174 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x576b…7336backed Bears	4c	2,063$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.07	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	-7.3wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Lions	70c	2,022$1,415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$607	144	45.8%66 W · 78 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed Bears	11c	2,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	128	42.2%54 W · 74 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Bears	11c	1,983$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.09	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	24cpaid	-70%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Bears	13c	1,942$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.46	129	34.9%45 W · 84 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04a…824ebacked Bears	16c	1,754$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.54	41	24.4%10 W · 31 L	-4.0wins	-0.10per pick	34cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce54…90bcbacked Bears	18c	1,705$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.93	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Bears	12c	1,700$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	140	22.9%32 W · 108 L	-12.8wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Bears	7c	1,637$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.54	168	32.1%54 W · 114 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cd…3cf2backed Bears	16c	1,600$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	-6.2wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Bears	17c	1,500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	106	24.5%26 W · 80 L	-12.6wins	-0.12per pick	36cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfa39…b3c5backed Bears	17c	1,500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.99	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Bears	18c	1,422$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.54	284	33.1%94 W · 190 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb840…d340backed Bears	18c	1,255$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.92	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ded…5d66backed Lions	76c	1,227$938 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$289.84	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+76.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x916b…e181backed Bears	18c	1,212$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.09	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Bears	18c	1,190$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.2	75	26.7%20 W · 55 L	-4.6wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d1…9fabbacked Bears	5c	1,140$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…cf42backed Bears	17c	1,135$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Bears	17c	1,110$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.67	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcede…d9ebbacked Bears	8c	1,060$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.03	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+5.1wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x552b…4bd3backed Bears	43c	1,057$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.1	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Bears	15c	1,051$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.95	290	59.7%173 W · 117 L	+14.4wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Bears	4c	1,015$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.58	162	26.5%43 W · 119 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa59b…69d2backed Bears	18c	1,004$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Bears	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07a3…d687backed Bears	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+4.2wins	+0.18per pick	47cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9aa3…f82dbacked Bears	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed Bears	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Bears	16c	999.97$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	113	46.9%53 W · 60 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c2…e299backed Bears	18c	988.89$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda7…fc55backed Bears	5c	987.58$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.71	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4b8…a9f0backed Bears	17c	908$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.36	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…fc16backed Bears	17c	908$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.36	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f97…13d2backed Bears	17c	882.35$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Bears	13c	869$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.63	103	45.6%47 W · 56 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa32b…e132backed Bears	16c	806.17$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.33	106	26.4%28 W · 78 L	-9.9wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-30%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Bears	17c	800$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	228	38.6%88 W · 140 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe174…f74bbacked Bears	17c	759.99$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Bears	17c	755.88$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.5	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc018…018abacked Bears	14c	724.64$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c5…25cfbacked Bears	12c	688.3$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.99	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d30…ec0dbacked Bears	3c	681.17$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.93	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Bears	15c	670$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-8.1wins	-0.24per pick	36cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xe81f…aa42backed Bears	18c	643.56$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.84	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Bears	8c	638.35$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.89	528	28.6%151 W · 377 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd75d…6337backed Bears	16c	607.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3714…d2a4backed Bears	18c	594.06$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.93	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb53…8395backed Bears	17c	553.18$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.04	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28b6…4eddbacked Bears	7c	547.83$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x340f…3cf5backed Bears	19c	526.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd240…e29abacked Bears	19c	526.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40e…53ddbacked Bears	40c	501.67$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.65	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	29cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Lions	67c	500$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165	221	42.1%93 W · 128 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Bears	17c	499.98$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	75	41.3%31 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dea…db3bbacked Bears	11c	474.33$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d99…d5c2backed Bears	16c	473.44$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.75	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0f…da3abacked Bears	12c	454.91$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9977…085fbacked Bears	15c	446.67$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.4	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Bears	5c	443.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	56.5%39 W · 30 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa98c…acb2backed Bears	14c	428.53$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.99	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f30…52f3backed Lions	79c	419.99$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.25	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	73cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb52…55ecbacked Bears	5c	408.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bears vs. Lions

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market