NFL · resolved market
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64c67fa2f835468413e777c4be9d78e77d202d6001a1cf08695a0f6a8918e9c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa13a…8c2abacked Yes | 0c | 21,110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x393f…1a01backed Yes | 0c | 7,441$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 2c | 5,459$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,325.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 21cpaid | +626.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 28c | 4,224$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.29 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b26…3b3cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,809$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 20c | 3,464$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 12c | 2,979$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,621.41 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 20c | 2,970$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 6c | 2,925$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.42 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,648$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9b…40ecbacked Yes | 12c | 1,184$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 1,024$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…1099backed Yes | 16c | 938.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 21c | 938.17$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.02 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9d…c116backed Yes | 10c | 933.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 15c | 900$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…6af8backed Yes | 79c | 830.21$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.9 | 125 | 70.4%88 W · 37 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 706.8$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.37 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 667.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.89 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 33c | 650.53$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.85 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…e69cbacked Yes | 11c | 580.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 64c | 350$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 37c | 349.94$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 162 | 59.9%97 W · 65 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…aa44backed Yes | 20c | 345.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes | 12c | 304.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…4612backed Yes | 72c | 252.26$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 20c | 248.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 12c | 219.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf863…82ccbacked Yes | 73c | 185.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes | 21c | 145.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 8c | 141.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.76 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe54a…c688backed Yes | 71c | 140.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 9c | 123.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7153…363bbacked Yes | 72c | 114.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…63d5backed Yes | 18c | 109.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…42c1backed Yes | 19c | 105.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d16…598bbacked Yes | 15c | 102.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…25cfbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…a659backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +167.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…f630backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…668ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -66%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675e…add8backed Yes | 72c | 97.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…f2cdbacked Yes | 53c | 93.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…4819backed No | 18c | 93.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 73c | 90.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 13c | 89.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 32c | 88.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f44…3db9backed Yes | 24c | 86.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 21c | 75.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa505…b899backed Yes | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 57c | 60.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…20ebbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 24c | 59.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 31c | 56.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 27c | 54.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…2612backed Yes | 72c | 41.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d7…a5e8backed Yes | 72c | 32.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…7941backed Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…42d3backed Yes | 72c | 23.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…26e8backed Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 62c | 21.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214d…8911backed Yes | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…59b2backed Yes | 72c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back?this page
- Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Breece Hall be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will De’Von Achane be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Isiah Pacheco be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Running Back?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Kyren Williams be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will another player be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.