NFL · resolved market
Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Running Back?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39fba5173e1e3f31d4520d81b1f2342fd5e0d6302f26aebc74ce951190222908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,497$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 1c | 5,712$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 36c | 3,884$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.5 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9c…9511backed Yes | 38c | 3,567$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 32c | 2,699$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.6 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…aee3backed No | 75c | 2,227$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.23 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 34c | 1,693$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 1,563$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 73c | 1,397$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.47 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a7…e661backed No | 69c | 1,304$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.42 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,179$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…399fbacked No | 63c | 807.77$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…2cc4backed No | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 64c | 691.48$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.93 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed No | 66c | 545.01$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed No | 80c | 480$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 66c | 322.78$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.62 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 67c | 299$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 23c | 265.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +294.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked Yes | 28c | 177.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…3806backed Yes | 28c | 167.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…842bbacked Yes | 36c | 133.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…1391backed Yes | 37c | 122.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 72c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +122%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes | 35c | 100.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked No | 80c | 82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Yes | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf168…5725backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…e69cbacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 34c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…99cebacked Yes | 35c | 65.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…75dabacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1254…5738backed Yes | 36c | 54.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b6…98eebacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ee…7cf4backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 63c | 39.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…4e32backed No | 67c | 29.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb276…d4debacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…3622backed No | 74c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…3a5bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Running Back?this page
- Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Breece Hall be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will De’Von Achane be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Isiah Pacheco be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Running Back?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Kyren Williams be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will another player be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.