TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,004 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45d7…1935backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost-$15110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c2,410$29 inLost-$29.342430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c00…5d94backed Yes1c2,358$34 inLost-$33.91323.1%1 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes6c1,715$98 inLost-$98.331809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,377$13 inLost-$12.8452828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes17c413.17$70 inLost-$7010125.7%26 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes10c405.47$42 inLost-$41.9313428.4%38 W · 96 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8669…f77ebacked Yes6c332.7$20 inLost-$19.991656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+37.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x31fc…4e30backed Yes15c279.12$41 inLost-$41.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+1,001.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef94…502ebacked Yes19c150$28 inLost-$28.22937.9%11 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+46.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff64…c395backed Yes19c140$27 inLost-$26.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9b…5722backed Yes17c100$17 inLost-$178453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes20c99.92$20 inLost-$19.9841540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1f…2185backed Yes20c70$14 inLost-$1440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd7…925ebacked Yes20c50.03$10 inLost-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.