NFL · resolved market
Will Kyren Williams be the top Fantasy Running Back?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc52232d6f1faee26a930f7428bbb63987b9c675d532dc9089e941cc121feed1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 2c | 2,366$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,281$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 2c | 791.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 2c | 763.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…047fbacked Yes | 3c | 474.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 13c | 450$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 7c | 199.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 18c | 125.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f4…a035backed Yes | 41c | 104.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 17c | 68.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 68c | 25.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyren Williams be the top Fantasy Running Back?this page
- Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Breece Hall be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will De’Von Achane be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Isiah Pacheco be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Running Back?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will another player be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.