NFL · resolved market
Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Running Back?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaf56ffe29cc4becd7e175df670f1feb8fb5aa1e1eef436182525a735281cfd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $327,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 3c | 4,996$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 2,576$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.77 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…28acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,768$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…5d94backed Yes | 3c | 1,702$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,206$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf5…ebbbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42af…0157backed Yes | 2c | 930$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea6…6d01backed Yes | 23c | 858.7$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 28c | 800$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 72c | 787.44$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.44 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 3c | 685.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…0b44backed Yes | 3c | 620.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 618.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 550.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 408.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 3c | 406$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…ef9ebacked Yes | 3c | 383$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 6c | 377.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…0905backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd5…6e61backed Yes | 30c | 294.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 29c | 205.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 5c | 204.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…2a6dbacked Yes | 40c | 184$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…c842backed Yes | 19c | 158.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…85f2backed Yes | 7c | 153.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dec…6dd1backed Yes | 9c | 148.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…7941backed Yes | 14c | 143.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked Yes | 10c | 133$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…a092backed Yes | 25c | 80.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 32c | 78.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…f8d0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 80c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Running Back?this page
- Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Breece Hall be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will De’Von Achane be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Isiah Pacheco be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Running Back?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Kyren Williams be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
- Will another player be the top Fantasy Running Back?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.