TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

GPT-5 released in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$753,918
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$733,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $753,918 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 384 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe999…6f77backed Yes14c144,898$19,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,820.41812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-82.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes11c51,370$5,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,704.177222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes9c28,612$2,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,542.576291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No63c12,696$7,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,712.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No68c10,073$6,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,255.31650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0215…c398backed Yes6c10,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes2c9,619$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1780%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bda…121bbacked No70c8,878$6,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,663.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc30a…353bbacked Yes43c8,148$3,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,481.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No74c7,683$5,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.11837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed Yes3c7,238$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed Yes0c7,211$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-71.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes21c5,921$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.852133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-49.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf1fbacked Yes7c5,410$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-72.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c4,338$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2657426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes4c4,081$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.89150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6726…eabdbacked No68c3,981$2,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8528…d446backed Yes6c3,579$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578c…9661backed No73c3,425$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x706e…2a41backed Yes6c3,118$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533f…2ef1backed No65c3,020$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.78580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfbf…74fdbacked No76c2,290$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.563100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2541…4f1ebacked No80c2,233$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d2…d6d2backed No65c2,102$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.412638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf162…b6b5backed Yes32c1,940$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.62123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x169b…30c9backed No60c1,902$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.15966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2902…33cdbacked Yes27c1,878$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes1c1,868$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-85.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd958…77a1backed Yes6c1,801$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc615…221dbacked Yes39c1,732$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea6…a363backed Yes5c1,681$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes4c1,668$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd1c…2a17backed No57c1,638$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…8839backed Yes7c1,555$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3caa…4a19backed No75c1,548$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe51…3982backed Yes25c1,530$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf076…30babacked Yes4c1,440$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes4c1,432$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6382.6%1 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-87.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecdf…6c07backed No71c1,415$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece7…dab4backed Yes4c1,415$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d5c…75f0backed Yes61c1,386$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a8…5ec0backed Yes5c1,211$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf20c…42f0backed Yes8c1,207$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805d…c541backed Yes4c1,206$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc19…0b8abacked Yes10c1,149$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed No78c1,145$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.46560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc93b…09d5backed No76c1,141$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0002…5e91backed Yes37c1,114$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe415…db17backed Yes5c1,111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbdc…0ababacked Yes37c1,101$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes4c1,100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-92.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e8…d686backed Yes2c1,080$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed No60c1,066$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.49366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes36c1,048$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.95119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-87.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88f4…f92cbacked Yes4c1,019$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2b3…7469backed Yes62c1,002$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f57…9fb9backed No78c1,000$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a58…62abbacked Yes4c1,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…e414backed No61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes2c976$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.571533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed No75c907.16$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes44c905.63$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c897.37$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.272935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes26c876.99$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.332512%3 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7e4…1009backed No75c874.05$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee6e…807cbacked No73c803.4$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes5c795.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8518544.3%82 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes33c779$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes3c776.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1492…97dabacked No76c767.23$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d2…4f20backed No60c684.11$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b7…f7d7backed Yes38c631.58$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e5…3a68backed Yes21c630.18$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200a…d498backed No78c625$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f3…76dcbacked Yes6c623.66$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes34c600.3$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed Yes34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f8b…0159backed No60c587.67$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x413c…1823backed Yes38c524.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a46…bbfbbacked Yes4c500.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2353429.4%10 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19014339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes6c500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked Yes6c499.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-54.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e72…3e8dbacked Yes33c499.98$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No79c499.96$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.991816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c5a…87a9backed Yes15c499.61$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8f…a260backed Yes35c490$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes19c482.2$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4625731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41f8…70b2backed Yes25c481.21$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a1b…3b29backed Yes5c462.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d6…f4e9backed No68c441.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed No63c433.84$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.32850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea7a…b9dfbacked Yes27c432.87$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c8…770dbacked Yes36c420.25$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6880…8abebacked No71c417.8$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf566…1386backed No71c408.3$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.08837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ff…fc59backed Yes4c406.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbe3…18bdbacked Yes4c403.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.