TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Ethena win the USDH ticker?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,151,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$592,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,151,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf786…f8c0backed Yes2c107,975$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ec…6504backed Yes3c62,163$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.382958.6%17 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+26.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c56,100$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.61712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51be…5df4backed Yes1c42,383$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd39f…d494backed Yes5c41,429$2,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,042.430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9188…5a25backed Yes0c37,664$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-73%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…d596backed Yes5c36,332$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07e0…1db9backed Yes0c36,260$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.261050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c23,299$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56571.8%1 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+116.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Yes0c21,934$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x591f…5610backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8342…5b0fbacked Yes3c15,675$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3322…18abbacked Yes3c15,362$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ac…59fabacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41a…1935backed Yes9c13,896$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.92166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick24cpaid-91.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b9c…e333backed Yes0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c12,547$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636227.4%17 W · 45 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f7…fe6ebacked Yes3c12,263$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd186…8a96backed Yes6c12,000$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6243…2f80backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd228…2725backed Yes1c11,978$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.58616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a1…6877backed Yes1c10,867$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.07520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-72.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c10,598$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.327663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x175b…93aebacked Yes35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf646…ec54backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bb4…4961backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes12c8,950$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.491735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a7…a879backed Yes0c8,311$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c8,116$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.12573.5%2 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed Yes53c8,108$4,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,333.894731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes1c6,861$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.471030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+46.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebd4…701dbacked Yes0c6,691$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d09…ce9ebacked Yes1c6,538$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe04…0ecfbacked Yes8c6,209$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d33…f5d3backed Yes0c6,072$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1295…640dbacked No63c5,897$3,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd863…3a7fbacked Yes5c5,000$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a0…7090backed Yes1c4,944$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7102…1a1abacked Yes4c4,702$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a1…0ff3backed Yes7c4,555$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc812…bbdcbacked Yes5c4,370$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992a…5242backed Yes5c4,353$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb86e…e898backed Yes15c4,295$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1f…97debacked Yes6c4,110$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0199…da86backed Yes7c3,788$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed Yes7c3,500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…8a19backed Yes8c3,498$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b5c…b1f0backed Yes1c3,431$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes18c3,380$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.0523841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb060…a900backed Yes2c3,300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes14c3,252$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.033256.3%18 W · 14 L+6.0wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+565.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe43f…8030backed Yes25c3,230$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes33c3,190$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.53119.4%6 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-58.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0aaa…8212backed Yes1c3,187$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+288.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4da6…59fabacked Yes11c3,089$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa097…8795backed Yes7c3,050$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe659…f7e9backed Yes7c2,953$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb494…b7b5backed Yes54c2,823$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0600…bf98backed Yes11c2,819$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435a…217abacked Yes8c2,783$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0194…6a4abacked Yes5c2,777$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.85650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00cf…06f1backed Yes7c2,645$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1881010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-84.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b6f…1a0cbacked Yes57c2,518$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e55…87f8backed Yes43c2,511$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c2,460$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.067621.1%16 W · 60 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb74b…f6b7backed Yes4c2,200$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes2c2,170$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.75633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6694…9c46backed Yes49c2,114$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03d2…70b6backed Yes5c2,041$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0f…2052backed Yes5c2,030$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9518…c9e3backed Yes52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.551118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc239…899dbacked Yes11c1,927$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes3c1,900$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.572524%6 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-61.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No62c1,788$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.262832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf522…82d2backed Yes4c1,693$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd5…c087backed Yes36c1,529$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4dd…3046backed Yes42c1,371$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.81855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c1,337$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7633329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f21…62efbacked Yes4c1,300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d36…c4dbbacked Yes39c1,278$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.33128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes2c1,216$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.01407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-76.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e6…5d2bbacked Yes4c1,166$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f5…a9efbacked Yes37c1,141$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9b…2556backed Yes5c1,077$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0181…c1c5backed Yes5c1,020$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x293a…2554backed Yes2c1,005$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873e…689bbacked Yes4c987.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff03…3a38backed Yes36c948.47$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c902$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.571107.3%8 W · 102 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c4…d55ebacked Yes34c887.7$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…cdcabacked Yes58c862.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a09…09f9backed Yes9c855.48$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac4…0418backed Yes4c843.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8934…8745backed Yes4c800$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x928f…6e55backed Yes4c749$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed Yes41c739.29$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc81c…e454backed Yes7c719.46$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c67…29dbbacked Yes48c700$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes4c683.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.696713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b1…8f2dbacked Yes3c606.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.