TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,865,085
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,907,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,865,085 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,098 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfdd9…8ea6backed Yes0c204,732$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.3230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x449a…68a4backed Yes2c201,906$3,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,589.841136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-48.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c99,435$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b83…9318backed No67c64,039$43,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,954.22729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc919…a162backed Yes17c59,133$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607c…51dfbacked Yes2c50,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes11c41,399$4,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,661.4880%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed Yes6c40,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes12c38,502$4,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,595.36116.4%10 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c34,320$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.191712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes0c31,290$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-67.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No48c29,119$14,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,036.5713131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8fdf…f38ebacked No20c25,318$5,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,258.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+220.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes80c25,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,000944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff68…9baabacked Yes37c24,436$8,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,969.8320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36ce…daddbacked Yes16c21,808$3,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,548.822638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e2e…db6abacked Yes20c21,754$4,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,286.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eba…33bdbacked Yes9c21,528$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.37147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick26cpaid-80%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x594c…d256backed Yes11c21,102$2,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,260.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked No30c20,858$6,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,585.74738.3%18 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+112.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc140…59e0backed Yes67c20,502$13,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,800.83650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40d…37d9backed Yes75c20,094$14,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,983.841566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+35.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e6…89c1backed No61c19,094$11,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,534.611040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f4…0fc7backed Yes0c18,333$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe08c…e03cbacked Yes0c17,251$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x686c…c25fbacked Yes0c17,010$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd4a…1104backed Yes0c16,852$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb8…d0c9backed Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23e8…981abacked Yes13c15,901$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.44714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x921f…8003backed Yes16c15,513$2,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,455.71119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-71%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes35c14,919$5,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,160.671421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid+36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ec…43d2backed No72c14,762$10,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,197.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc9…59b7backed No53c14,124$7,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,647.91966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+40.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc9c…d5c5backed No79c13,873$10,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,968.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa96c…d1c7backed No79c12,703$9,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,718.91457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes5c12,075$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.121735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+103.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe1…b7e5backed Yes17c12,005$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x107d…1c18backed Yes8c11,989$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No72c11,707$8,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,322.191866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x31cf…0579backed Yes12c10,854$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8470…dc9fbacked Yes24c10,609$2,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,513.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a22…eeb1backed No80c10,605$8,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1292100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+109.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bbe…e5fcbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-68.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e2…7e37backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6a…cc00backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7dd…2e56backed No72c10,000$7,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d8acbacked Yes19c9,848$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3c…e301backed Yes0c9,800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a2…9508backed Yes0c9,750$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c77…8656backed No64c9,617$6,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.821435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cca…8405backed Yes1c9,473$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x621d…5447backed No78c8,973$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.421070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+60%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46b8…357dbacked Yes26c8,527$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes8c8,477$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.021450%7 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22c5…1bdabacked Yes6c7,971$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e93…6572backed Yes6c7,678$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ce…16ecbacked No60c7,663$4,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b3…57adbacked Yes27c7,640$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…ba94backed Yes7c7,631$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.62119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-68.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac31…9ac0backed No58c7,510$4,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,183.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b1…30d1backed Yes7c7,451$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x672c…7afdbacked Yes7c7,272$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x131b…2d3cbacked Yes11c7,073$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e13…dd11backed Yes74c7,060$5,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,214.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.51per pick68cpaid-78.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc2ba…3d9cbacked Yes0c7,037$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc5…9b92backed Yes37c6,673$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,453.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa354…22ebbacked No76c6,609$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.752281.8%18 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f34…3bd9backed Yes8c6,410$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.81520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c9…1b1abacked No78c5,992$4,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.96933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes24c5,951$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b04…6549backed Yes1c5,915$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64cf…2616backed Yes7c5,874$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3baa…1fd8backed Yes31c5,776$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-69.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes7c5,600$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.58626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No63c5,581$3,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.811612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-80.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x43ec…78fabacked Yes9c5,540$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes11c5,505$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.654526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No62c5,421$3,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.871070%7 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+118.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e13…7de1backed Yes21c5,368$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes30c5,351$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1c8…2a8dbacked Yes7c5,259$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed Yes6c5,136$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.57231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e87…5b6fbacked Yes19c5,130$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3295…83e4backed Yes49c5,012$2,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6098…5cbabacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes9c5,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45012840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa30…0f17backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes20c4,965$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.981540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc002…6f57backed Yes0c4,950$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-77.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c08…947abacked Yes70c4,877$3,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,402.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a9…c3cabacked Yes24c4,667$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.621010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x944a…a9adbacked No55c4,658$2,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.43771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+80.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5905…a34cbacked Yes7c4,562$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…59ffbacked Yes23c4,499$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7f…23f6backed Yes74c4,396$3,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,247.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf103…b018backed No77c4,291$3,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaadc…ba6dbacked Yes18c4,203$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8bf…324bbacked No25c4,167$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,116.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+296.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.