Token Launches · resolved market
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0cca1d2be477b722cfef3aeeef8b84bd05e09910c307aecb245fc288096bc6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,865,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,907,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,865,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,098 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdd9…8ea6backed Yes | 0c | 204,732$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449a…68a4backed Yes | 2c | 201,906$3,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,589.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 1c | 99,435$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…9318backed No | 67c | 64,039$43,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,954.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…a162backed Yes | 17c | 59,133$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…51dfbacked Yes | 2c | 50,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 11c | 41,399$4,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,661.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed Yes | 6c | 40,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 12c | 38,502$4,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,595.3 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 34,320$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.19 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 31,290$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 48c | 29,119$14,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,036.57 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…f38ebacked No | 20c | 25,318$5,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,258.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +220.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes | 80c | 25,000$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…9baabacked Yes | 37c | 24,436$8,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,969.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Yes | 16c | 21,808$3,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,548.82 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…db6abacked Yes | 20c | 21,754$4,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,286.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…33bdbacked Yes | 9c | 21,528$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.37 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -80%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…d256backed Yes | 11c | 21,102$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked No | 30c | 20,858$6,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,585.7 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…59e0backed Yes | 67c | 20,502$13,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,800.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…37d9backed Yes | 75c | 20,094$14,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,983.84 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…89c1backed No | 61c | 19,094$11,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,534.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…0fc7backed Yes | 0c | 18,333$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,251$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x686c…c25fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,010$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…1104backed Yes | 0c | 16,852$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…d0c9backed Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…981abacked Yes | 13c | 15,901$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921f…8003backed Yes | 16c | 15,513$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.71 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 35c | 14,919$5,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,160.67 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…43d2backed No | 72c | 14,762$10,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,197.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc9…59b7backed No | 53c | 14,124$7,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,647.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed No | 79c | 13,873$10,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,968.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…d1c7backed No | 79c | 12,703$9,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,718.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 5c | 12,075$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…b7e5backed Yes | 17c | 12,005$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107d…1c18backed Yes | 8c | 11,989$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 72c | 11,707$8,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,322.19 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…0579backed Yes | 12c | 10,854$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8470…dc9fbacked Yes | 24c | 10,609$2,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,513.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…eeb1backed No | 80c | 10,605$8,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…e5fcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…7e37backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6a…cc00backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…2e56backed No | 72c | 10,000$7,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…d8acbacked Yes | 19c | 9,848$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3c…e301backed Yes | 0c | 9,800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a2…9508backed Yes | 0c | 9,750$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c77…8656backed No | 64c | 9,617$6,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,479.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cca…8405backed Yes | 1c | 9,473$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x621d…5447backed No | 78c | 8,973$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +60%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b8…357dbacked Yes | 26c | 8,527$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes | 8c | 8,477$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22c5…1bdabacked Yes | 6c | 7,971$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…6572backed Yes | 6c | 7,678$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…16ecbacked No | 60c | 7,663$4,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,030.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…57adbacked Yes | 27c | 7,640$2,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed Yes | 7c | 7,631$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.62 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac31…9ac0backed No | 58c | 7,510$4,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,183.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…30d1backed Yes | 7c | 7,451$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672c…7afdbacked Yes | 7c | 7,272$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131b…2d3cbacked Yes | 11c | 7,073$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e13…dd11backed Yes | 74c | 7,060$5,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,214.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.51per pick | 68cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ba…3d9cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,037$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…9b92backed Yes | 37c | 6,673$2,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,453.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 76c | 6,609$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.75 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f34…3bd9backed Yes | 8c | 6,410$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…1b1abacked No | 78c | 5,992$4,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes | 24c | 5,951$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…6549backed Yes | 1c | 5,915$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…2616backed Yes | 7c | 5,874$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…1fd8backed Yes | 31c | 5,776$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 7c | 5,600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.58 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 63c | 5,581$3,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.81 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…78fabacked Yes | 9c | 5,540$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 11c | 5,505$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.65 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 62c | 5,421$3,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.87 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…7de1backed Yes | 21c | 5,368$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes | 30c | 5,351$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c8…2a8dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,259$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed Yes | 6c | 5,136$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.5 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e87…5b6fbacked Yes | 19c | 5,130$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…83e4backed Yes | 49c | 5,012$2,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…5cbabacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa30…0f17backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes | 20c | 4,965$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed Yes | 0c | 4,950$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…947abacked Yes | 70c | 4,877$3,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,402.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a9…c3cabacked Yes | 24c | 4,667$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked No | 55c | 4,658$2,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…a34cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,562$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…59ffbacked Yes | 23c | 4,499$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7f…23f6backed Yes | 74c | 4,396$3,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,247.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf103…b018backed No | 77c | 4,291$3,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…ba6dbacked Yes | 18c | 4,203$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…324bbacked No | 25c | 4,167$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,116.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? this page
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31?Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.