TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,730,498
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,580,712

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,730,498 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86c0…b5e6backed No0c498,000$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa780…1a6cbacked No0c148,000$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…77d9backed No7c81,628$6,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,101.1370%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…ef6abacked No0c77,700$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No1c32,191$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.33724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a62…f60dbacked No6c22,414$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f42…78fcbacked No9c19,311$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+324.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c13,861$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.137663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No3c12,470$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.292917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked No3c11,935$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed No1c11,000$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1391931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid-18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc31…c181backed No10c10,490$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x711d…4e8dbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff7…291ebacked No0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick9cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9da5…61d5backed No3c9,931$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5542…4c26backed No1c9,928$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.28850%4 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+156.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No3c8,219$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.472825%7 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No4c8,091$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.6273.7%1 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fe4…256abacked No4c8,000$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x910d…5a46backed No7c7,986$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5692814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe08e…1d61backed No6c7,766$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No5c7,494$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.561712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No3c6,778$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.34220%0 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed No3c6,742$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.712711.1%3 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed No9c6,409$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5504131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87dd…003bbacked No2c6,224$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.67425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6853…dc08backed No2c5,830$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No3c5,506$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.48520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9879…f735backed No3c5,366$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c1…3ac2backed No10c4,943$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2098…c8aebacked No4c4,017$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.751963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+58.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No5c4,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.984254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No6c3,868$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.26287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed No3c3,718$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.383036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f9…cc6abacked No9c3,625$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.2250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c7…a21cbacked No3c3,570$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06de…5892backed No4c3,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed No3c3,389$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x271e…e033backed No3c3,302$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c7…6b2bbacked No5c3,287$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.46714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-78%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9f…f098backed No8c3,241$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb6c…5711backed No5c3,240$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.081010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c29…0b7cbacked No5c3,177$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.24110%0 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc824…df08backed No1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb96…0e40backed No7c2,954$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-58.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No5c2,940$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.028052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdada…e341backed No2c2,780$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3017…1da3backed No5c2,691$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x891a…75acbacked No1c2,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+185.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f7c…d582backed No6c2,511$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37d…b5b3backed No3c2,325$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed No5c2,310$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.95520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eab…c3b5backed No5c2,185$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29af…2473backed No1c2,179$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed No3c2,163$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.681513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-76.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed No7c2,147$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0643…8eccbacked No2c2,136$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.47120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945f…8725backed No5c2,123$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb256…3f94backed No7c2,070$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.312536%9 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08f9…1358backed No6c2,062$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd0…445cbacked No8c2,051$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed No6c2,049$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.251020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-67%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0100…a303backed No5c2,007$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0e…7786backed No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed No11c1,926$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.597231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…1f74backed No4c1,899$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.52911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed No2c1,888$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69eb…46e5backed No2c1,800$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No3c1,782$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.67425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-58.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd2a…28d6backed No2c1,781$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64fa…1661backed No3c1,748$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.28425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+74.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc31…133cbacked No8c1,703$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecd…0091backed No6c1,689$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ab2…02bebacked No3c1,686$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7498…60adbacked No5c1,669$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf3e…dc7dbacked No3c1,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed No7c1,640$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e10…beeebacked No1c1,635$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed No2c1,562$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ed…6879backed No1c1,560$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250b…9cb5backed No13c1,486$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…13febacked No7c1,440$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd318…2fe2backed No5c1,430$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b81…a09abacked No1c1,429$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b9…de55backed No2c1,417$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c9…ecfcbacked No1c1,402$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked No3c1,400$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210336.9%38 W · 65 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed No2c1,332$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.54526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa696…1d24backed No8c1,313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1b…dfb8backed No3c1,307$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked No3c1,285$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405339.6%21 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+35.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe07f…8f3ebacked No6c1,207$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.311526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ca…b27abacked No7c1,203$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.022035%7 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bba…340ebacked No4c1,197$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc4…9d29backed No3c1,187$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1208…fe1bbacked No7c1,149$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d00…08b5backed No1c1,146$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd25…f900backed No1c1,134$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.