Token Launches · resolved market
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe864641e7e295f714f1384d3e939fd2eca7aeae18908ca9c156029bec6ee1e69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,352,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,371,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,352,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac64…77d9backed No | 2c | 106,015$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 81,479$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.54 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 1c | 69,003$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.96 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 0c | 31,764$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…dd48backed No | 3c | 31,404$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 0c | 30,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed No | 0c | 23,584$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a47…021fbacked No | 1c | 20,579$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd016…088dbacked No | 2c | 20,094$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed No | 2c | 19,335$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 16,630$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.09 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 1c | 16,500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 15,229$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 15,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.92 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 2c | 13,850$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.26 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed No | 1c | 13,326$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 1c | 11,213$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.88 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 1c | 11,135$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…a303backed No | 1c | 9,821$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 1c | 9,377$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 2c | 9,115$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f3…a801backed No | 1c | 8,717$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…01babacked No | 1c | 7,565$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 0c | 7,365$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc592…1c11backed No | 3c | 7,312$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…39ebbacked No | 0c | 7,010$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed No | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…a21cbacked No | 2c | 6,433$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 0c | 6,312$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…8ec1backed No | 1c | 6,158$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…f7adbacked No | 1c | 6,131$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…ab31backed No | 0c | 5,770$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3e…dc7dbacked No | 4c | 5,506$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b5…c605backed No | 4c | 5,429$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 0c | 5,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 15cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 2c | 4,766$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7c…cd98backed No | 1c | 4,325$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2098…c8aebacked No | 0c | 4,010$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfb…7d18backed No | 1c | 3,694$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed No | 1c | 3,625$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eab…c3b5backed No | 3c | 3,035$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9879…f735backed No | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…d771backed No | 1c | 3,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 1c | 2,722$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb7…ea3cbacked No | 22c | 2,618$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…6879backed No | 1c | 2,557$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf37…51fcbacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c555backed No | 1c | 2,254$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0c…e082backed No | 1c | 2,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 1c | 2,054$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 2c | 1,841$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed No | 1c | 1,724$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed No | 1c | 1,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…d571backed No | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…e7d8backed No | 2c | 1,570$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed No | 3c | 1,556$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 4c | 1,399$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 3c | 1,388$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 5c | 1,298$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…ee97backed No | 1c | 1,282$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad6…5643backed No | 2c | 1,253$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…fa42backed No | 2c | 1,252$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed No | 3c | 1,091$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed No | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…6123backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 2c | 997.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd89d…e66dbacked No | 5c | 902.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed No | 5c | 810$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…850abacked No | 5c | 768.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcf…19f5backed No | 3c | 710.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed No | 2c | 705.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…6572backed No | 6c | 680.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 2c | 680.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…776cbacked No | 4c | 555.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…bcc6backed No | 4c | 542.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…5db8backed No | 3c | 514.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed No | 2c | 506.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…55bebacked No | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…1e90backed No | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 2c | 473.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…e6a6backed No | 10c | 382.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked No | 4c | 340.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee58…b704backed No | 5c | 313.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…55fcbacked Yes | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed No | 5c | 241.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c4…75cebacked No | 6c | 159.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? this page
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31?Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.