Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x812d8819cda5c57e824719de0381d8e207a45b5b71da31a6425f6c2f181a3fc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,551,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,953,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,551,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,430 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x411a…bc76backed Yes | 3c | 797,403$22,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,480.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 4c | 621,215$25,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,444.63 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 3c | 570,036$17,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,226.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ed…4582backed Yes | 0c | 539,830$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 6c | 496,304$28,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,203.75 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 3c | 462,158$16,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,051.07 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 14c | 415,678$58,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,689.23 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 13c | 341,780$43,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,279.67 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 5c | 276,686$12,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,832.64 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…74babacked Yes | 4c | 267,000$11,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,358.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…ab2abacked Yes | 3c | 263,699$7,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,292.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 14c | 262,150$36,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,667.23 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 261,152$10,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,987.39 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 2c | 260,433$5,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,791.99 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…6a23backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf202…83c5backed Yes | 2c | 226,127$4,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,972.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…76c3backed Yes | 0c | 209,144$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…9d1bbacked Yes | 3c | 206,747$6,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,463.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…be52backed Yes | 1c | 200,950$2,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,810 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…59a0backed Yes | 4c | 183,269$8,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,013.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 6c | 175,487$9,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,842.28 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe58f…8d6dbacked Yes | 2c | 170,213$3,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,251.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 5c | 168,401$8,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,992.13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 3c | 161,578$5,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,220.38 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…2a53backed Yes | 3c | 159,999$4,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,991.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 3c | 156,879$5,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,036.51 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 3c | 143,614$4,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,767.16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed Yes | 3c | 128,961$3,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,949.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…2661backed Yes | 4c | 121,479$4,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,990.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…2a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 120,319$3,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,162 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 18c | 118,383$21,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,599.51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00b…ee8abacked Yes | 4c | 113,933$4,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,314.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…0cf8backed Yes | 2c | 111,589$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02c…3be6backed Yes | 4c | 109,773$4,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,921.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593f…953abacked Yes | 3c | 106,324$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 9c | 101,360$9,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,514.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 14c | 101,347$14,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,359.03 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ec…e8f1backed Yes | 5c | 100,894$5,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,019.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…1187backed Yes | 3c | 100,591$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 19c | 95,832$18,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,517.95 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…5626backed Yes | 3c | 95,240$3,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…4f7cbacked Yes | 3c | 95,224$3,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…cb78backed Yes | 14c | 90,000$12,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…7fb5backed Yes | 4c | 87,590$3,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,652.84 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf897…09adbacked Yes | 0c | 83,561$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0765…f32dbacked Yes | 2c | 81,987$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2872…27cdbacked Yes | 4c | 80,756$3,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,532.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b5…6b0ebacked Yes | 10c | 79,884$8,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,226.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 11c | 78,266$8,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,629.56 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…795cbacked Yes | 3c | 75,562$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1866…f0fbbacked Yes | 2c | 75,274$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b5…93b8backed Yes | 4c | 70,230$2,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…85ebbacked Yes | 3c | 70,218$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,241.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e3…68fdbacked Yes | 4c | 69,518$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,976.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 3c | 68,885$2,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,365 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…086bbacked Yes | 1c | 67,343$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Yes | 2c | 66,021$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 63,795$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 2c | 62,983$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…e1c2backed Yes | 5c | 62,874$3,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,438.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 3c | 62,768$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a4…fcd4backed Yes | 2c | 62,390$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed Yes | 4c | 56,883$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187.55 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…f911backed Yes | 2c | 56,585$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 9c | 55,184$4,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,934.05 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fc…3e18backed Yes | 17c | 54,426$9,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7b…104ebacked Yes | 3c | 54,331$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 4c | 53,810$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.48 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…7b44backed Yes | 2c | 53,620$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 3c | 53,216$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.05 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…7644backed Yes | 6c | 52,952$3,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,030.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d09…cac4backed Yes | 4c | 52,876$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 24c | 52,400$12,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,431.73 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 4c | 52,095$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 4c | 51,668$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.49 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…237cbacked Yes | 2c | 51,135$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…97ddbacked Yes | 2c | 50,877$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…7977backed Yes | 24c | 50,009$11,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,995.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…b905backed Yes | 5c | 50,000$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 49,657$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.59 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 4c | 49,474$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,144.51 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…f553backed Yes | 2c | 49,359$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfeb…c3c2backed Yes | 3c | 49,335$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 6c | 49,099$2,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,842.91 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x799a…90b4backed Yes | 23c | 48,956$11,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,343.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…eb69backed Yes | 5c | 45,594$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,390 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…7f59backed Yes | 22c | 45,375$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 11c | 44,197$4,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,995.46 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…c1e9backed Yes | 0c | 43,733$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…ccb8backed Yes | 13c | 43,595$5,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,495.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…9334backed Yes | 1c | 42,726$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…85aabacked Yes | 3c | 42,008$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…03a2backed Yes | 4c | 41,162$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 6c | 40,458$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.71 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed Yes | 20c | 40,000$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…04f8backed Yes | 5c | 39,560$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3497…e9babacked Yes | 4c | 38,423$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes | 7c | 36,896$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.22 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…14f8backed Yes | 7c | 35,833$2,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,486.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…7b30backed Yes | 3c | 35,692$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.