TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,479,262
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,962,868

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,479,262 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 393 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes0c4,828,693$13,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,543.5990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c2,725,294$11,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,708.03352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes0c2,457,318$2,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,457.32150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes1c1,874,463$9,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,554.73120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c1,871,762$5,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,913.47280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x128e…931ebacked Yes0c1,462,942$4,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,388.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes0c1,199,995$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.99190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2bb…1824backed Yes0c879,711$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.28120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33ac…9334backed Yes0c871,876$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.8830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a41…c090backed Yes0c868,781$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c842,899$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,884.29320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c620,737$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.79523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes0c527,804$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-85.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e63…3a3ebacked Yes0c512,962$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d7b…104ebacked Yes0c509,700$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes1c441,488$2,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,648.93100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c416,295$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.881520%3 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe26…64b0backed Yes0c366,170$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c5…1710backed Yes0c365,640$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f6…237cbacked Yes0c358,953$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x753f…b52bbacked Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42d8…2de9backed Yes0c295,262$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes0c224,999$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2252910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes0c195,099$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.85234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-94.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes1c183,000$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20870%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5a…b27bbacked Yes0c170,460$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked Yes0c161,667$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3453417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-74.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Yes0c158,744$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.4970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…6a23backed Yes0c150,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d82…672dbacked Yes0c124,750$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a03…68d1backed Yes0c119,278$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9da1…7086backed Yes0c116,950$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf00…e784backed Yes0c108,639$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c105,877$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.14170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a14…03b5backed Yes0c105,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4582…2ae0backed Yes0c103,580$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes1c100,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf65…a366backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8488…8376backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2387…2736backed Yes0c100,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa47…c4ccbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe58f…8d6dbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc1…f4f0backed Yes1c98,664$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255b…8eadbacked Yes0c91,000$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes0c86,667$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233340%0 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed Yes0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6616…2bf9backed Yes0c77,000$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes0c72,948$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a4…fcd4backed Yes0c70,060$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6832…ec47backed Yes0c69,054$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc428…79eebacked Yes1c62,980$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.6140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf11d…9c59backed Yes1c62,164$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b9…dd6fbacked Yes0c55,299$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc01b…c933backed Yes2c55,058$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…797dbacked Yes0c54,100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb384…12babacked Yes0c53,500$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46af…cd69backed Yes1c52,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f0…d710backed Yes0c51,250$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4076…5985backed Yes0c50,594$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4424…323fbacked Yes0c50,078$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2120…dadcbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331f…3d17backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e9c…5855backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc87b…511bbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4735…73ddbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e3…481cbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc8…1836backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x225e…f49fbacked Yes0c49,050$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea34…43dabacked Yes0c47,949$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc77…fafdbacked Yes0c46,131$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0074…9869backed Yes0c46,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…6740backed Yes0c45,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41bf…7ab3backed Yes0c41,478$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…884dbacked Yes0c41,250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11590%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x431c…be52backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…0b20backed Yes0c40,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8864…ce17backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12c…57b0backed Yes0c38,940$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.94633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-33.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23a5…11cebacked Yes0c36,250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf932…b09bbacked Yes0c34,840$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes0c33,410$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.67258%2 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6608…4d0cbacked Yes0c33,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55db…7ce1backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-80.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x818b…fd2bbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4952…13a5backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…5b28backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-73.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5840…ced3backed Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d8c…0754backed Yes0c29,680$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes0c28,100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374314%6 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-32.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c6…2ad9backed Yes0c28,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d1…a5abbacked Yes0c27,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x25bb…ae7dbacked Yes0c27,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef4…520dbacked Yes0c25,857$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12490%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6bd…dc41backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6189backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…af0fbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d1…c7c4backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2f…9d1bbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd4…84a9backed Yes0c24,930$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.