Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d09f8cb4ac601074c02828328a893fdab030ece3ca682faaef89d82c43daec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,912,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,344,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,912,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 977 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 1c | 3,906,188$28,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,260.52 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes | 1c | 2,275,395$17,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,066.52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,271,978$8,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,861.62 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,222,033$7,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,452.08 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e36…4390backed Yes | 1c | 868,590$7,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,599.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b0…5c38backed Yes | 0c | 845,997$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…be52backed Yes | 0c | 702,843$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 601,645$5,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,507.26 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 1c | 555,567$5,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,077.18 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 0c | 528,574$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.57 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2421…8196backed Yes | 1c | 440,215$4,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,903.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58f…8d6dbacked Yes | 0c | 431,833$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…edd5backed Yes | 1c | 400,209$3,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,657.22 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 1c | 398,114$5,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,842.59 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 1c | 347,830$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.98 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3480backed Yes | 1c | 337,836$4,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,769.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…e727backed Yes | 0c | 333,370$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.84 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…b5a5backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 1c | 290,880$3,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,732.74 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf627…8895backed Yes | 1c | 289,160$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02c…3be6backed Yes | 2c | 266,756$4,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,090 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687b…67b1backed Yes | 0c | 266,667$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255b…8eadbacked Yes | 0c | 262,067$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes | 1c | 252,382$3,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,034.36 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 1c | 242,516$2,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 1c | 229,507$3,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,408.82 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 1c | 202,802$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.53 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…e42bbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…cd69backed Yes | 1c | 197,329$2,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,946.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 176,750$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.57 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…f6c8backed Yes | 1c | 169,784$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3d…864cbacked Yes | 0c | 161,087$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…795cbacked Yes | 1c | 159,978$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…76c3backed Yes | 0c | 158,333$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00b…ee8abacked Yes | 2c | 149,314$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5e…0d8fbacked Yes | 0c | 147,316$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes | 1c | 141,167$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 1c | 140,404$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.01 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 2c | 136,286$2,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 1c | 124,356$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…f1c9backed Yes | 1c | 124,227$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c5…1710backed Yes | 0c | 123,432$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411a…bc76backed Yes | 2c | 122,342$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f3…7667backed Yes | 1c | 120,666$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 1c | 119,634$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.65 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 1c | 119,012$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf7…393bbacked Yes | 1c | 118,810$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…7fb5backed Yes | 1c | 114,593$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b01…6d8abacked Yes | 1c | 112,019$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6054…d55ebacked Yes | 1c | 108,508$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…61cbbacked Yes | 2c | 105,481$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…279ebacked Yes | 1c | 102,832$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d9…a6c3backed Yes | 0c | 100,017$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…6a23backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e4…8f3ebacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…e1c2backed Yes | 1c | 99,971$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 1c | 98,972$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 1c | 96,633$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3497…e9babacked Yes | 0c | 95,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…f268backed Yes | 0c | 94,901$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…481cbacked Yes | 0c | 94,344$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 1c | 93,310$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.07 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…442ebacked Yes | 0c | 87,471$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 1c | 86,363$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.36 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc175…50b4backed Yes | 1c | 86,083$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…59a0backed Yes | 1c | 85,814$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…0e91backed Yes | 2c | 85,700$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…823dbacked Yes | 1c | 84,531$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d306backed Yes | 0c | 83,917$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…2f61backed Yes | 6c | 80,064$4,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,995.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84e…a97cbacked Yes | 1c | 76,756$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca0…8a31backed Yes | 2c | 76,016$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…667fbacked Yes | 1c | 73,981$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…3a3ebacked Yes | 0c | 73,823$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 1c | 73,000$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9268…3409backed Yes | 0c | 71,482$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac5e…5695backed Yes | 1c | 68,978$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3708…171fbacked Yes | 1c | 63,164$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbb…f43ebacked Yes | 0c | 63,080$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 63,003$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.02 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442f…16fcbacked Yes | 1c | 62,802$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…c66abacked Yes | 1c | 57,143$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…bc00backed Yes | 2c | 56,183$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 1c | 54,580$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.95 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes | 0c | 54,500$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f9…18bebacked Yes | 1c | 52,709$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…5214backed Yes | 1c | 51,539$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 1c | 51,218$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a4…fcd4backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c846backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…d840backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…884dbacked Yes | 1c | 49,787$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…6d4cbacked Yes | 0c | 49,321$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…8181backed Yes | 1c | 49,211$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 1c | 48,617$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…209ebacked Yes | 3c | 48,581$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f7…e8d6backed Yes | 1c | 47,222$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…a5abbacked Yes | 1c | 46,746$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed Yes | 0c | 46,299$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.