TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,311,949
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,387,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,311,949 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,548 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x371a…cc13backed Yes0c4,262,737$9,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,504.8740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558e…2ee7backed Yes0c2,006,388$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.3940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes0c1,222,356$3,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,222.178924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c1,155,274$3,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,776.37160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes1c1,042,175$6,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,482.41150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7f…492bbacked Yes0c1,040,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e71…ba82backed Yes0c1,000,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-85.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c978,087$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.23303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03b6…815bbacked Yes1c796,892$9,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,189.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes1c789,119$5,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,440.42130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fca…473cbacked Yes0c673,563$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9793…789cbacked Yes0c599,640$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.51100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes1c565,290$2,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,936.5180%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffe…8eddbacked Yes1c421,897$2,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,953.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes1c409,255$3,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,457.852917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47b5…a045backed Yes0c400,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c375,651$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.8320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac1…0e83backed Yes0c350,836$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433e…86fcbacked Yes0c341,019$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.1880%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614a…d202backed Yes0c330,838$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x839e…11f7backed Yes1c330,051$2,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x979b…e47cbacked Yes1c325,074$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x101f…f79abacked Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes2c281,427$5,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,918.764415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6cf…a305backed Yes1c280,947$3,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,866.4770%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…b1e0backed Yes0c259,313$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe033…40a5backed Yes3c259,256$8,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,133.711618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes2c253,278$4,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,511.73180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes2c217,870$3,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,814.78160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b0b…204dbacked Yes0c207,378$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.0290%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc408…c1efbacked Yes0c206,900$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Yes0c200,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…363fbacked Yes0c194,419$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152f…a549backed Yes0c183,000$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba8…b0cbbacked Yes0c176,410$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe858…5bc6backed Yes0c173,524$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc210…eee3backed Yes0c166,000$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5935…6a21backed Yes1c160,821$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d2…5cccbacked Yes0c152,100$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fef…4849backed Yes1c147,753$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.9430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x232c…e613backed Yes0c138,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c134,865$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.784511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f09…9312backed Yes0c131,293$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes0c129,975$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.39100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeefb…54b2backed Yes32c126,960$40,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,208.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a3c…0283backed Yes0c125,545$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48df…eb90backed Yes2c120,372$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Yes0c115,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba0…cee3backed Yes0c106,772$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.21130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c90…79f4backed Yes0c106,667$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes6c105,772$5,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,925.812814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2453…f5dabacked Yes0c103,390$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x630f…9f59backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765d…f447backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fda…8405backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2e…6ec0backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cba…9abebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-85.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb414…cf4dbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b70…283cbacked Yes44c99,968$43,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,486.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6d7bbacked Yes0c98,610$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee45…e055backed Yes1c96,500$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes0c94,765$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa729…e2d5backed Yes0c89,000$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x804f…1ba9backed Yes2c88,477$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f7…6f09backed Yes0c88,333$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.5190%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed Yes1c88,000$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc07f…7f58backed Yes1c82,408$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e6…5b51backed Yes0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked Yes1c79,257$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.49616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-77.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb52e…6104backed Yes0c75,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…5b80backed Yes0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de2…4c07backed Yes1c74,102$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.3230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x646b…5112backed Yes1c72,172$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes1c72,159$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.61110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd2…f39fbacked Yes0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb92…2dd5backed Yes2c70,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-73.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…eb16backed Yes1c70,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes1c68,152$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.55140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b45…e3febacked Yes0c64,143$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe849…55b0backed Yes0c63,430$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes2c62,500$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.37119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1be…9662backed Yes0c61,764$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9357…4c9bbacked Yes0c60,610$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes3c60,536$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,544.18160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85dd…62d4backed Yes4c58,170$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c0…9079backed Yes1c57,399$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d9…06a3backed Yes0c55,660$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6680%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes3c55,085$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.642630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c54,300$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0f…38e7backed Yes0c53,169$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c52,867$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.38960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8193…3581backed Yes1c52,491$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.87140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c9…cc3fbacked Yes1c51,650$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a9…5e9ebacked Yes1c51,296$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes6c50,905$3,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,105.96238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x828d…c9a5backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc00…2649backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf81c…4540backed Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d5e…4a1bbacked Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.