AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ed321b9ad70468de66e0b4f72e49f87156f6cd526168caca07427bcf17bcdb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 6,025$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 13c | 1,999$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.57 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 19c | 1,538$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.54 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 7c | 1,474$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 78c | 1,439$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.09 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 61c | 1,321$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.91 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,320$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.99 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 59c | 1,185$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.9 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 1,025$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.91 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 79c | 891.29$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.91 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 877.1$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.03 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 61c | 632.19$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.21 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 71c | 567.65$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.24 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…e623backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…62dabacked No | 2c | 496.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 460$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 63c | 450$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 7c | 421.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 57c | 405.19$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 4c | 372.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.05 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 56c | 355.79$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed Yes | 37c | 328.27$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.64 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…5a2abacked No | 6c | 310.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…b99cbacked Yes | 45c | 305.73$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 292.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 287.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 63c | 285.37$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.87 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked Yes | 11c | 265.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.45 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 44c | 262.14$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 12c | 227.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 206.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 75c | 200.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 43c | 200$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 24c | 189.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…f10ebacked Yes | 77c | 180.32$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 62c | 177.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 23c | 175.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 75c | 175$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…7d38backed Yes | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…ab09backed No | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 18c | 153.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.75 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 75c | 149.06$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Yes | 79c | 146.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 73c | 137.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Yes | 74c | 135.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…5cffbacked Yes | 76c | 132.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 28c | 127.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed No | 16c | 124.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 39c | 122.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…b9c5backed Yes | 53c | 117.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…3e9ebacked No | 59c | 117$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 41c | 107.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x976b…ff93backed Yes | 75c | 99.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…dd43backed No | 35c | 98.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96be…9947backed Yes | 41c | 86.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf11…f3bfbacked Yes | 59c | 84.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 66c | 82.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…6c42backed Yes | 76c | 72.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 30c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb26…f2a3backed Yes | 79c | 63.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 55.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca23…3d55backed Yes | 76c | 50.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9962…cb4fbacked Yes | 42c | 40.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 51c | 38.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 31c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Yes | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafeb…eaeebacked Yes | 76c | 31.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 40c | 30.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 37c | 29.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…a447backed Yes | 48c | 29.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…db66backed Yes | 73c | 28.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 56c | 28.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439e…86e7backed No | 42c | 28.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…fbe9backed Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed Yes | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 72c | 25.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf90d…5174backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…e7a8backed Yes | 76c | 23.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2c…5ec6backed Yes | 76c | 23.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9e…2180backed Yes | 77c | 20.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…e067backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…a7e3backed Yes | 57c | 18.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…0bddbacked Yes | 74c | 17.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.