TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$122,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,247 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c7,462$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.356291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c6,367$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.812920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4367…d573backed Yes1c6,262$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes7c5,492$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.2120130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c2,158$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6426312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed Yes65c1,978$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.542236.4%8 W · 14 L-5.3wins-0.24per pick60cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c1,818$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.361867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbb…8ebfbacked Yes2c1,696$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d6d…e803backed Yes1c1,558$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3856…3e13backed Yes2c1,556$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes16c1,415$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.1919040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6469…c029backed Yes2c1,144$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.111428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,103$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.081,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes2c1,066$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.95700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes12c999.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1206439.1%25 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed Yes2c853.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.071233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-22%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c841.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.62591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe4…5504backed Yes50c807.78$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.13825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c709.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.212522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c699.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No45c591.87$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.2215452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe05a…a7ebbacked Yes3c581.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c544.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.491754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed No23c510$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.74235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes8c488.26$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.242729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes54c485.72$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.536945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes32c475.01$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2718323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes8c434.56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8312839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec1…2bc2backed Yes76c405.14$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.562835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes8c373.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.914537.8%17 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes5c317.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.152259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No53c294.66$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.2914355.2%79 W · 64 L+16.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No66c293.59$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1111841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes67c274.98$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.495554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d38…2078backed Yes45c262.82$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.844032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8296…fecabacked Yes70c255.56$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.773151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes11c245.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.472977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes42c232.85$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0389317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xb357…b99cbacked Yes38c212.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.291258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47ff…916fbacked Yes44c203.63$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.731931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6718…e623backed Yes66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+41.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689447.9%45 W · 49 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked No37c200$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1272814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+57.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No40c194.33$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.525837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c159.42$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9214643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45fc…35c4backed Yes7c149.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.17933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-46%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No27c148.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.286338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf162…ba35backed Yes69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdad6…b754backed Yes16c129.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.281553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+99.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5073…43cdbacked Yes48c124.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa58…7316backed Yes24c123.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No57c113.9$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6214339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2965…c74abacked Yes15c106.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.792416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-65%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes13c104.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.355324.5%13 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45ea…be16backed Yes40c100.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No66c99.95$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2412050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes65c95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.751421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick49cpaid-69.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed No49c93.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.081442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8e…cf2cbacked No34c89.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.182166.7%14 W · 7 L+5.0wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+78%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa47c…9099backed Yes16c87.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa2c…5ec6backed Yes15c76.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc76…0ad0backed No39c75.23$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.892142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c58.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9240712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No27c52.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3520148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c27…8cc1backed Yes39c51.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa877…439ebacked Yes70c51.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.881145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes48c50.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247824.4%19 W · 59 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53e9…d896backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes27c49.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.417238.9%28 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34af…bd55backed Yes42c47.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No36c39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.095250%26 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes35c33.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9417350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes38c33.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.696331.7%20 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes38c31.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.948720.7%18 W · 69 L-19.3wins-0.22per pick43cpaid-64.6%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No45c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.54944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad71…b959backed Yes71c28.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad81…ea8ebacked Yes70c22.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ca8…b7b7backed Yes72c20.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad8a…a03bbacked Yes68c20.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No74c20.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.393850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb65…a419backed Yes77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.450%0 W · 5 L-3.5wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x32a3…a818backed Yes64c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe17d…0eeebacked Yes72c19.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ed…0ed3backed Yes70c17.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0130%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd0f…0febbacked Yes76c17.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa76…35f8backed Yes72c16.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ee6…df34backed Yes72c16.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa0b…351dbacked Yes72c16.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f2d…34f6backed Yes72c16.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6930%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6795…c36dbacked Yes68c16.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No79c16.06$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3713971.9%100 W · 39 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8e7…0a8abacked Yes76c15.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7a4…075bbacked Yes72c15.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.330%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb713…4ffebacked Yes71c15.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0730%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a8b…7b4fbacked Yes71c15.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.930%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7d0…2ce3backed Yes74c14.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x386e…3092backed Yes69c14.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.230%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3975…46edbacked Yes73c14.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.320%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.