AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bbc2ed1b78a56b5e8255354e1c9854037ae4930b3c45ff49b6332435ce9f7e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 9,790$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,249$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 5,056$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 5c | 2,600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…dc69backed Yes | 4c | 2,184$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,972$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 1c | 1,960$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf1…1b5dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,839$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…366bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,807$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.41 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,666$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…35ecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,652$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…abb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,651$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc804…6015backed Yes | 1c | 1,581$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,547$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…f86fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,499$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 73c | 1,400$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.4 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,359$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b58…2c78backed Yes | 4c | 1,340$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Yes | 24c | 1,309$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 23c | 1,277$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 8c | 1,271$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…b955backed Yes | 24c | 1,130$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1814…88ebbacked Yes | 4c | 940$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…7739backed Yes | 4c | 931$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf21…07b0backed Yes | 4c | 926$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…280ebacked Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 835.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…af25backed Yes | 4c | 808$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 22c | 775.17$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.29 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52d…8abfbacked Yes | 4c | 739$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf2…54efbacked Yes | 4c | 717$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 713.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 655.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 642.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 552$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked Yes | 3c | 515.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 15c | 469$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 5c | 419.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 345.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 13c | 308.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 3c | 299.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 7c | 263.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 17c | 258.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 77c | 244$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 10c | 228.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 219.14$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked Yes | 8c | 215.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…614abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 73c | 186.14$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6a…d18ebacked Yes | 9c | 182.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb16…4b4fbacked Yes | 14c | 122.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 16c | 92.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 28c | 87.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 74c | 54.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 73c | 31.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…d8abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed No | 78c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed No | 74c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.