AI · resolved market
AWS service disrupted by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8e8063245cd85fdb1992258c5893e8e88440d493914807b06a1e8c595868d23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 1c | 39,277$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.07 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…8bd4backed Yes | 0c | 18,529$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 0c | 12,316$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…6749backed Yes | 10c | 10,708$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad4…bab5backed Yes | 13c | 9,303$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 6c | 6,260$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.73 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 19c | 4,998$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.72 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 56c | 1,157$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.54 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 10c | 887.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 537.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 508$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 79c | 500$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes | 4c | 392.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 391.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe908…76debacked Yes | 57c | 388.73$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 34c | 362.41$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 46c | 350$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 294.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 18c | 275$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.5 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 273.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 51c | 253$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes | 7c | 228$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…ed9fbacked No | 54c | 140$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 130.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…37c7backed Yes | 33c | 118.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…9774backed No | 69c | 107.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 107.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 63c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…b935backed Yes | 60c | 83.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 82.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 80.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 47c | 65.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Yes | 73c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 54c | 62.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…8a31backed Yes | 53c | 56.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 40c | 55.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1211…2c42backed Yes | 40c | 52.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c64…5611backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…29dbbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…e56cbacked No | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9d…9854backed Yes | 30c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 43.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81e…92bbbacked Yes | 59c | 39.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 32c | 34.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked No | 42c | 33.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…671fbacked Yes | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed No | 62c | 24.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 58c | 23.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 61c | 22.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6e70backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…4382backed Yes | 60c | 17.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.