Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb00cada95839a9741ee64dc4b765c8471855945359f00bad26fed5471a71388f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $204,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a81…d324backed No | 27c | 23,490$6,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,254.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…819bbacked No | 0c | 11,889$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 54c | 11,121$5,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,146.51 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 70c | 8,608$6,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,596.6 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 23c | 7,132$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,492.45 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 51c | 6,070$3,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,106.18 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 27c | 5,529$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.89 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 62c | 3,696$2,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.92 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 50c | 3,650$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,835.35 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 60c | 3,491$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,091.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 32c | 3,376$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.76 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 32c | 2,220$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.44 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 70c | 2,088$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.99 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 21c | 2,016$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66e…b2b6backed Yes | 66c | 1,981$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 1,901$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.24 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…2237backed Yes | 70c | 1,861$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f4…4119backed Yes | 70c | 1,859$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 6c | 1,833$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 49c | 1,775$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.19 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 1,694$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.7 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 36c | 1,513$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 33c | 1,447$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.46 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 1,416$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.35 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…65bebacked No | 12c | 1,263$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…d6d9backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 28c | 1,242$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 21c | 1,162$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.18 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…154abacked No | 1c | 1,150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 32c | 1,015$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.08 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…5543backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed No | 77c | 974$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 23c | 974$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 10c | 950$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 34c | 928.51$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.16 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 56c | 906.94$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.82 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 18c | 900$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…d5a4backed No | 9c | 861.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…0d5bbacked No | 12c | 848.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 62c | 844.85$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.94 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed No | 72c | 843$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 19c | 825$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 71c | 760.08$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.63 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 30c | 748.35$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.35 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf190…5aadbacked No | 3c | 742.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b1…099dbacked No | 23c | 739.6$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 12c | 709.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 63c | 695$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.42 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…a46fbacked No | 21c | 675.21$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 45c | 662.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 41c | 647.79$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.41 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 34c | 643.61$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.62 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 631.14$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.44 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 63c | 620.98$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.26 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked Yes | 79c | 598.22$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.06 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 582.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…d79bbacked No | 7c | 565.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed No | 9c | 564.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 43c | 549.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.2 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 22c | 549.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3411…1214backed Yes | 77c | 528.79$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef95…88c0backed Yes | 33c | 519.18$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 39c | 517.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3133…dc6ebacked Yes | 22c | 511.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 34c | 499.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…7c49backed No | 50c | 490.2$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 56c | 488.19$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed No | 18c | 450$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 18c | 422.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…f928backed No | 9c | 412.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 30c | 410$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…d38abacked No | 24c | 403.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 72c | 399$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 74c | 380.14$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.39 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 40c | 376.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 78c | 373.63$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…61bbbacked No | 58c | 366.11$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…3af9backed No | 6c | 365$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…9d60backed No | 63c | 357.81$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 51c | 335.05$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…3f19backed No | 9c | 331.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…be27backed Yes | 56c | 331$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae4…b41ebacked No | 9c | 328.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab79…f2edbacked No | 51c | 320.84$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 51c | 320.49$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 64c | 314.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 18c | 312.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ec…6562backed No | 9c | 300.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes | 41c | 299.95$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b54…abd2backed No | 10c | 297.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…9ec5backed No | 21c | 286$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf310…0dcbbacked No | 72c | 278.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed No | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 274.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 54c | 268.61$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.