Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x343708712a490ba12021914b03fc5bd438be2dad9a1eee73cad8a4a5a3fb1111
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 79c | 3,474$2,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.38 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 32c | 1,247$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.66 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 78c | 1,217$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.3 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,168$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed Yes | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 30c | 999.94$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.23 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…4bb7backed Yes | 12c | 879.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 30c | 779.18$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 22c | 695.51$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 7c | 526.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed No | 76c | 486$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 34c | 453$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.02 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 8c | 319.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 8c | 300.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 294.47$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 268$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 30c | 266.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 34c | 253.82$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 24c | 248$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 24c | 238$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 229.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked No | 80c | 224.64$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 13c | 175.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 66c | 162.18$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…03e0backed No | 76c | 160$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +357.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x529e…33e3backed Yes | 25c | 140.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 13c | 139.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 137.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…9e0bbacked Yes | 25c | 118.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 13c | 115.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…f0ebbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes | 12c | 104.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…661fbacked No | 64c | 90.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed No | 64c | 80.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 74c | 71.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 26c | 60.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 24c | 55.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…bc22backed No | 71c | 49.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…3307backed Yes | 31c | 49.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 27c | 42.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 71c | 30.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 28.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…6388backed No | 77c | 25.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 79c | 25.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6464…7899backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 70c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 64c | 16.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 72c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.