Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fcd219481e3ffc6dcdaa7b382bdf31685f90b60803f2264704a0b2b3f1746cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 2,774$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.46 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 15c | 1,400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,274$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 5c | 1,146$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 994.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 6c | 984$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…bbcdbacked Yes | 8c | 976.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 11c | 695.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d6…63a7backed Yes | 2c | 665.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de8…6c90backed Yes | 5c | 640$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked Yes | 10c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 7c | 385.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 8c | 350$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…f7c8backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885c…af8bbacked Yes | 6c | 320.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 6c | 313.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 4c | 299.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 294.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 4c | 260.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 5c | 243.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 232.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 6c | 225.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0906…3d09backed Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 224.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 217.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 78c | 192.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 90.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4034…f52cbacked No | 76c | 32.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.