Middle East · resolved market
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdccabd4259261ebe59c22f50f7602df939a1feec98fc2a4314db536560120c5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 8,756$6,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.5 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 75c | 4,641$3,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.58 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 26c | 3,489$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.16 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed Yes | 31c | 1,956$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 70c | 1,832$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.33 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 70c | 1,738$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.46 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked No | 74c | 1,341$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 27c | 1,338$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.57 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f96…1e41backed Yes | 33c | 1,260$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 39c | 1,182$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.89 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 34c | 999.3$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.77 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 33c | 966.18$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.84 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 20c | 839.42$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.28 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 12c | 816.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b8…4847backed No | 74c | 749.99$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 37cpaid | +284.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 14c | 706$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 35c | 669.4$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.26 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 72c | 612.58$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.58 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed No | 65c | 610.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.99 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 52c | 574.21$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 437.45$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 36c | 335.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…1fdabacked No | 68c | 295.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 259.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 23c | 238.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 212.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 208.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes | 18c | 207.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 202.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef5…343ebacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2519…9a98backed No | 75c | 198.13$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…8834backed Yes | 11c | 183.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 182.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 26c | 179.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 66c | 165.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 33c | 160$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed No | 76c | 149.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 144.29$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…58e9backed Yes | 47c | 138.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 138.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed Yes | 38c | 130.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed No | 78c | 128.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 40c | 119.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 11c | 113.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…e220backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d561backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.31per pick | 58cpaid | -54%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b51…e49ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed No | 63c | 91.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed No | 55c | 82.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa68a…11bfbacked No | 51c | 78.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 61c | 56.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 42c | 54.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 50.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…cc30backed No | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc7…7eb2backed No | 74c | 46.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 72c | 39.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +16.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…9b51backed No | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…a426backed No | 59c | 34.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cc…e049backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 53c | 26.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 78c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…d3a5backed No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…1776backed No | 69c | 18.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 64c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e1…336dbacked No | 77c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…87b8backed No | 66c | 15.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…fa05backed No | 66c | 15.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?this page
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?No won
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.